FDU PublicMind - October 10, 2001 Release

New Jersey General Election: McGreevey Widens Lead, Schundler Not Gaining

Heading into New Jersey's gubernatorial debate, Democrat Jim McGreevey continues to hold a solid lead over Republican Bret Schundler. Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind polled 626 likely voters statewide from October 1st through October 8th and found that McGreevey leads Schundler by 50%-33%, with 17% still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

According to the survey's findings, independent candidate Bill Schluter has no measurable effect on the vote for the two major party candidates.

Two weeks after the campaigns resumed, having been suspended after the terrorist attack, McGreevey's support remains more solid than that of his opponent. Among those who indicated they would vote for McGreevey in November, 72% said they would not change their mind, whereas only 65% of Schundler supporters said they were certain of their vote choice. In addition, McGreevey's support among Democrats and liberals is stronger than Schundler's support among Republicans and conservatives--a finding that could indicate trouble for Schundler. As survey analyst Bruce Larson noted, "Ordinarily it is exceedingly difficult for the Republican candidate to win without solid support from fellow Republicans and conservative voters."

McGreevey's lead over Schundler continues to be related to his higher name recognition. While 63% of voters know enough about McGreevey to have an opinion about him, only 55% know enough about Schundler to have an opinion about him. In addition, more voters have a favorable opinion of McGreevey than of Schundler. Whereas 46% of voters rate McGreevey favorably, only 34% of voters have a favorable opinion of Schundler. McGreevey also has fewer unfavorable ratings than does Schundler, with 16% of voters rating McGreevey unfavorably compared to 21% for Schundler. The PublicMind survey also indicates that a fair number of voters still have no strong opinion of either candidate. As Larson noted, "this may reflect the degree to which the campaigns have been eclipsed by the events of September 11."

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll also showed that voters have a slight preference for change from Republicans to Democrats: 37% said Republicans have "done a good enough job" in the statehouse and should be re-elected while 42% said it's "time to give the Democrats a chance."

Voter turnout remains uncertain for the upcoming election. According to Larson "The events of September 11th and the aftermath have made it difficult to predict turnout." Although the campaigns were suspended for two weeks following the attacks, and the election has received relatively little attention, 43% of voters claim that the recent terrorist attacks have made them more likely to vote in November, whereas only 1% said the attacks would make them less likely to vote.

Poll Analysis by Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson

Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727