FDU PublicMind - October 9, 2003 Survey

Background Memo

The most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 3 through October 7 using a randomly selected sample of 402 adults drawn from a current list of likely registered voters in the 12th legislative district. “Likely voters” are those who have participated in at least 3 of the past 4 general elections or have registered and voted within the past three years. Every voter who meets the sampling criteria and has a phone number of record has an equal chance of being selected. The sampling error for 402 adults is 5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. Interviews are conducted by professionally trained interviewers at TMR, Inc. using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system.

The wording of the questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or do you think the state has gotten off on the wrong track?
Question: Have you heard of …
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …?
Would that be very or somewhat favorable/unfavorable?
James McGreevey
Ellen Karcher
John Bennett

Question: How would you rate the job Jim McGreevey is doing as governor—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Question: How would you rate the job John Bennett has done as state senator—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Question: Do you think that James McGreevey has done a good enough job as governor to deserve reelection or would you rather see a new person in that job?

Question: This November in New Jersey there will be an election for the state legislature. In this year’s election for state assembly and state senate do you think you’ll be voting for the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Question: If the election for New Jersey’s state Senate were held right now, and you had to make a choice, which of the following two candidates would you vote for… or…? [If unsure: “which way do you lean?”]

Question: If you knew that a candidate was a strong supporter of Governor McGreevey, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

Question: If you knew that a candidate was a strong opponent of Governor McGreevey, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

Question: [Still thinking about your Senate district] Which party, the Democrats or Republicans, does a better job….[rotate list] ?
Controlling spending
Controlling taxes
Dealing with suburban sprawl/ overdevelopment
Dealing with auto insurance
Protecting the environment
Upholding ethical standards
Providing security from terror attacks

Question: Which of these issues we just talked about do you think should be the top priority in the coming year for the governor and legislature?
Controlling spending
Controlling taxes
Dealing with suburban sprawl/ overdevelopment
Dealing with auto insurance
Protecting the environment
Upholding ethical standards
Providing security from terror attacks