Governor No Help (to D’s) in 14th

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Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response

In the race for New Jersey’s 14th legislative district, Peter Inverso, the Republican incumbent leads Anthony “Skip” Cimino, the Democratic challenger among likely voters by a margin of 44%-29% according to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind. When leaners are included, Inverso’s lead is 45%-32%.

The Democrats’ race to pick up a seat and majority control of the Senate is well-financed in this district and the Democratic candidate is rated favorably by voters who know him; 27% have a favorable opinion and 16% an unfavorable opinion.  But the Governor’s unpopularity is as strong here as in other parts of the state: a majority (52%) say the state is off on the wrong track; a majority (55%) have an unfavorable opinion of the Governor; 71% rate the Governor’s job performance as only fair or poor; and 60% want to see McGreevey replaced with new person.  Moreover, the incumbent Republican is himself viewed favorably: 47% have a favorable opinion of the incumbent, against 16% who say they have an unfavorable view of him.

“In this race, the Republican seems to have several advantages,” commented Bruce Larson, professor of political science and survey analyst at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “First, he has two advantages associated with incumbency: name recognition and a solid base of support. Second, he has the Democratic governor’s unpopularity working for him.”

“But independents and Democratic unity may tell the story in this race,” added Larson. Among Republicans, Inverso leads by 79%-7% with 13% undecided. Inverso also leads among independents with a plurality of 42%. By contrast, Cimino has 59% of Democrats, while 21% of are undecided and 17% say they would cross over to Inverso. Among independents, 23% report they favor the challenger and 25% are unsure.

At this point in the race, a majority of likely voters (58%) offer no opinion, favorable or unfavorable, of Cimino. “Although Cimino has raised a lot of campaign money, he has not yet translated that money into high levels of name recognition,” said Larson. “He has also not yet given voters a good enough reason to oust Inverso,” added Larson.

As in other districts polled by PublicMind, voters say they are less likely to choose a candidate who is a strong supporter of the governor and more likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong opponent of the governor. And, as in other districts, controlling taxes and spending tops the voters’ list of legislative priorities.  On these two issues Republicans get better marks than Democrats.

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll of 400 likely registered voters in the 14th district was conducted from October 8 through October 11 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.443.8727

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

Copyright © 2003, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 031014]