Response by Stephen Salmore
In Democratic plans to take control of the Senate, the 14th District
is a very high priority. In recent years the Democrats have won both
Assembly seats and elected a Democratic Mayor in Hamilton, by far the
largest town in the district. In order to defeat the incumbent State
Senator Peter Inverso, they nominated a former Assemblyman and official
in the Florio administration, Skip Cimino, and have made sure his campaign
is well financed. However, these poll results cast doubt on the success
of these efforts and plans. Inverso’s share of the vote is less than
50%, and incumbents usually find it more difficult win over undecided
voters than challengers do, but his lead over Cimino is substantial. And
Cimino is having great difficulty securing his own base – only 59%
of Democratic voters are presently supporting him. On the other hand,
Inverso enjoys the solid support of Republican voters and is leading
among independents by almost two to one. Finally, McGreevey may be
more of a drag on Cimino than on other Democratic candidates, since
it may be reminding voters of Cimino’s past support of the last Democratic
Governor, Jim Florio. Despite the Democratic efforts and money, at
this moment it looks as if the 14th District Senator will
remain a Republican.
see
also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details
Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.