Response by Stephen Salmore

In Democratic plans to take control of the Senate, the 14th District is a very high priority.  In recent years the Democrats have won both Assembly seats and elected a Democratic Mayor in Hamilton, by far the largest town in the district.  In order to defeat the incumbent State Senator Peter Inverso, they nominated a former Assemblyman and official in the Florio administration, Skip Cimino, and have made sure his campaign is well financed.  However, these poll results cast doubt on the success of these efforts and plans.  Inverso’s share of the vote is less than 50%, and incumbents usually find it more difficult win over undecided voters than challengers do, but his lead over Cimino is substantial.  And Cimino is having great difficulty securing his own base – only 59% of Democratic voters are presently supporting him.  On the other hand, Inverso enjoys the solid support of Republican voters and is leading among independents by almost two to one.  Finally, McGreevey may be more of a drag on Cimino than on other Democratic candidates, since it may be reminding voters of Cimino’s past support of the last Democratic Governor, Jim Florio.  Despite the Democratic efforts and money, at this moment it looks as if the 14th District Senator will remain a Republican.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.

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