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For Immediate Release, Thursday, October 23       5 pages

Contact:  Krista Jenkins  908.328.8967 (cell) or 973.443.8390 (office)

kjenkins@fdu.edu

Governor’s Approval numbers flip-flop: More voters disapprove than approve

One of the most-watched governors in the country continues to struggle with a once admiring public. The most recent statewide survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds that Governor Christie’s job approval has dropped to 41 percent, with 47 percent now disapproving, the worst ratings since March in the wake of Bridgegate. These numbers are flip-flopped from September, when 46 percent favored and 40 percent disapproved of his leadership.

“The governor faces what many second term incumbents face — voter fatigue,” said Krista Jenkins, director of the poll and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “But when it comes to Governor Christie, his political ambitions make any drop in his approval fodder for his critics. They’d prefer to see his post-governor years end in political retirement, rather than continue on a national stage.”

Christie Job Approval: Second Term

Digging a bit deeper, the same poll finds that Governor Christie continues to polarize more than unify registered voters. In a question that asks what people like and dislike about the governor, about equal numbers say they like everything (32%) about him as dislike everything (35%) about him. In the heady days for Christie in the post-Sandy era, when most were impressed with his leadership regardless of their party leanings, sizably more liked everything (48%) than disliked everything (17%). Since the Bridgegate allegations broke, those numbers have found more equilibrium, which is where they largely remain today.

“Governors and presidents are unique in that they’re among the few, or in the case of the president, the only, elected official with a statewide or national constituency. Unity is therefore a good trait to demonstrate to prospective voters. The governor would no doubt much rather have numbers on this question from before Bridgegate than after,” said Jenkins. “That said, with a preponderance of Democrats in the state, the fact that he’s still pulling in a third of voters who like everything about him is a fairly respectable showing.”

Likes and Dislikes about Christie - Trend

Finally, voter confidence in the health of the state continues to drop. In September, right direction/wrong track numbers were also upside down. Forty percent of respondents were optimistic and 44 percent said the state was headed down the wrong track. Those lines now diverge even more, with 37 percent optimistic and almost half concerned (49%).

“Continual downgrades in the state’s bond ratings, concern over the inability of elected officials to work together to solve big problems like the growing pension fund shortfall, roads and bridges in disrepair — the list goes on. People are clearly looking around and not liking what they see,” said Jenkins.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 1107 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from October 13 through October 19, 2014, and has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 13 through October 13, 2014 using a randomly selected sample of 1107 registered voters who reside in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-2.9 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The following tables are based on all registered voters in the sample.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	41%	25	35	67	44	39	46	31	39	43	42
Disapprove	47%	67	49	22	46	48	44	54	48	46	48
Neither (vol)	9%	7	11	9	8	9	8	11	10	8	8
DK/Ref (vol)	1%	2	4	3	3	4	2	4	3	4	2

 

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	37%	28	36	51	38	37	39	34	43	37	35
Wrong track	49%	60	50	36	50	49	48	47	44	51	51
Neither (vol)	13%	12	14	13	12	14	12	18	13	12	13
DK/Ref (vol)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0

 

I’m going to read you four statements about Chris Christie. Please tell me which comes closest to your own views: 1) I like him, AND I like his policies; 2) I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies; 3) I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies; 4) I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies.
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-34	35-59	60+
Like him & policies	32%	12	27	60	35	29	37	19	26	33	35
Like him, not policies	19%	22	16	15	19	18	16	25	19	18	19
Dislike him, like policies	9%	9	9	10	9	10	8	12	11	11	7
Don’t like him or policies	35%	54	38	11	33	37	34	38	38	35	35
DK/Ref. (vol)	5%	3	10	4	5	5	4	6	6	4	5

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 released October 21

SEN1 and SEN2 released October 21

ID released October 21

BAIL1 and BAIL2 released October 21

GS1 and GS2 released October 21

ISSUES1 through ISSUES3 released October 21

 

NJ1.     Do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

3          Neither/neutral (vol)

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [rotate]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure (vol)

 

NJ3      I’m going to read you four statements about Chris Christie. Please tell me which comes closest to your own views: 1) I like him, AND I like his policies; 2) I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies; 3) I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies; 4) I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies.

            RANDOMIZE BUT KEEP 1 AND 2, 3 AND 4 TOGETHER

1          I like him, AND I like his policies

2          I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies

3          I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies

4          I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

Sample Characteristics

		Registered voters N = 1107; MoE = +/- 2.9
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	22%
	35-59	45%
	60+	31%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	68%
	African American	12%
	Hispanic	12%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	4%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	46%
	Ind/DK/Refused	18%
	Repub	36%

 

 

In the upcoming election for Senate, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Cory Booker, the Democrat? [rotate]
	Obama approval asked before Senate  preferences [N = 278]	Obama approval asked after Senate preferences [N = 247]
Booker	59	56
Bell	37	41
Other (vol)	0	1
Unsure (vol)	4	2
Ref (vol)	0	0

 

Regardless of how you’re going to vote, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [insert]
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure
Jeff Bell	29%	22%	49%
Cory Booker	57%	34%	9%

 

And if the race for U.S. Senate were between Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Bill Bradley, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?[rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Bradley	57%	95	50	16	51	63	51	78	57	59	54
Bell	36%	1	33	78	42	28	41	17	32	33	41
Other (vol)	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Unsure (vol)	7%	5	17	7	6	9	8	5	12	8	6
Ref (vol)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Do you agree or disagree [rotate] with those who argue the U.S. should value money based on the price of gold, or are you unsure?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Agree	23%	12	21	34	12	37
Disagree	32%	38	42	22	39	22
DK (vol)	46%	49	35	45	48	42
RefU.S.ed (vol)	0	1	2	0	1	0

 

Some are proposing a U.S. return to the gold standard which means paper currency would be valued according to the price of gold. How much, if at all, are you following this debate?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
A lot	10%	7	8	14	7	15
Some	19%	16	19	22	18	21
JU.S.t a little	22%	22	36	19	23	19
Not at all	49%	54	35	46	52	45
DK/Ref (vol)	0	2	2	0	1	1

 

 

 

Some say marriage is between a man and a woman, while others say members of the same sex should be allowed to marry. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Between man and woman	35%	16	30	58	15	60
Same sex marriage ok	52%	74	47	29	73	26
Both (vol)	9%	8	11	9	8	10
DK/Ref (vol)	4%	3	12	4	3	5

 

Some say climate change is manmade, while others say it is the result of normal changes in the atmosphere. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Manmade	41%	69	27	12	61	12
Normal change in atmosphere	34%	13	38	59	17	60
Both (vol)	20%	16	29	22	19	19
DK/Ref (vol)	6%	3	6	7	3	9

 

Some say divorce laws should require someone to be at fault for the breakup of a marriage, while others say couples should be free to break up without having to prove someone was at fault. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Require fault	13%	10	19	15	10	18
No fault	74%	80	71	69	79	68
Both (vol)	4%	4	2	3	5	2
DK/Ref (vol)	9%	6	8	13	6	12

 

On November’s ballot voters will be asked to approve an amendment to the state constitution that would allow judges to deny bail to violent defendants who may pose a threat to public safety if released. How much have you heard or read about this proposed amendment? (READ LIST)
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
A lot	11%	9	19	10	13	9	11	11	6	11	13
Some	18%	19	17	18	20	16	21	11	11	14	27
JU.S.t a little	25%	27	26	24	26	25	24	25	23	26	25
Nothing at all	46%	45	38	47	41	50	43	53	60	49	35
DK/Ref (vol)	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1

 

If you had to vote today, would you vote yes or no on this amendment?[rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Yes	77%	71	79	85	77	77	79	73	73	77	79
No	11%	14	8	7	13	9	10	14	10	12	10
DK/Ref (vol)	12%	16	13	9	10	14	11	13	17	11	11

 

 

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president? [rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	40%	78	19	2	33	49	33	68	44	42	38
Disapprove	51%	9	73	94	59	42	59	22	44	50	54
DK/Ref (vol)	9%	13	8	4	8	10	8	10	12	8	8

 

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track? [rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	30%	57	15	3	27	34	24	53	38	31	26
Wrong track	61%	26	81	95	67	54	67	36	57	61	63
DK(vol)	8%	15	4	2	5	11	8	10	6	7	10
Ref (vol)	1%	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	1	2

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

Note: ½ of sample asked U.S.1 and U.S.2 here; remaining half asked later in the survey

 

U.S.1               Do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK/Ref (vol)

 

U.S.2. In your opinion, do you think things in the United States are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track?[rotate]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure (vol)

 

SEN1               In the upcoming election for Senate, which candidate are you most likely to vote

for? Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Cory Booker, the Democrat? [rotate]

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Cory Booker, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

4          Unsure [vol; ask SEN1A]

9          Refused (vol)

 

SEN1A             Which way do you lean? ROTATE NAMES

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Cory Booker, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

8          DK (vol)

 

 

 

SEN2               And if the race for U.S. Senate were between Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Bill

Bradley, the Democrat, for whom would you vote? [rotate]

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Bill Bradley, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

4          Unsure [vol; ask SEN2A]

9          Refused (vol)

 

SEN2A             Which way do you lean? ROTATE NAMES

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Bill Bradley, the Democrat

3          Someone else (vol)

8          DK (vol)

 

ID                    Regardless of how you’re going to vote, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [insert] ROTATE NAMES

IDA     Jeff Bell, the Republican

IDB      Cory Booker, the Republican

 

IDA       Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

 

IDB       Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

 

Still thinking about the upcoming elections….

 

BAIL1 On November’s ballot voters will be asked to approve an amendment to the state constitution that would allow judges to deny bail to violent defendants who may pose a threat to public safety if released. How much have you heard or read about this proposed amendment? (READ LIST)

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          Nothing at all

9          DK/Ref (vol)

 

BAIL2    If you had to vote today, would you vote yes or no on this amendment?[rotate]

1          Yes

2          No

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Changing topics…

 

 

 

GS1     Some are proposing a U.S. return to the gold standard which means paper currency would be valued according to the price of gold. How much, if at all, are you following this debate? Would you say you’re paying…A lot, some, just a little, or no attention at all to this issue?

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          No attention at all

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

GS2     Do you agree or disagree [rotate] with those who argue the U.S. should value money based on the price of gold, or are you unsure?

1          Agree

2          Disagree

3          Unsure

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Now I’d like to ask you about some social issues…

 

ISSUES1          Some say marriage is between a man and a woman, while others say members of the same sex should be allowed to marry  [ROTATE]. What about you? Do you believe….marriage is between a man and a woman OR do you believe same sex couples should be allowed to marry; same sex couples should be allowed to marry OR marriage is between a man and a woman.

1          Marriage between man and woman

2          Members of same sex should be allowed to marry

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

ISSUES2          Some say climate change is manmade, while others say it is the result of normal changes in the atmosphere [ROTATE]. What about you? Is climate change…man made OR the result of normal changes in the atmosphere; the result of normal changes in the atmosphere OR manmade.

1          Manmade

2          Normal changes in the atmosphere

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/unsure (vol)

 

ISSUES3          Some say divorce laws should require someone to be at fault for the breakup of a marriage, while others say couples should be free to break up without having to prove someone was at fault [ROTATE]. What about you? Do you believe…fault should be established in a divorce OR people should be free to break up without having to prove that someone was at fault… people should be free to break up without having to prove that someone was at fault OR fault should be established in a divorce

1          Should have to prove fault

2          Should be able to break up without proving fault

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/unsure (vol)

 

 

 

Sample Characteristics

 

		Likely voters N = 525; MoE = +/- 4.3
Gender	Male	52%
	Female	48%
Age	18-34	13%
	35-59	49%
	60+	38%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	75%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	9%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	3%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	48%
	Ind/DK/Refused	11%
	Repub	42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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