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For immediate release Monday, September 15, 2014                    4 pp.

Contact: Krista Jenkins  908.328.8967 (cell) or 973.443.8390 (office) kjenkins@fdu.edu

Looking Beyond Christie:

NJ Leadership Up for Grabs

The state will need a new leader when Governor Christie leaves office, either because of political ambitions that include the White House, or because his term as governor expires. Who are some possible contenders for his job and how widely embraced are any of them at this early date? Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind asked self-identified Republican and Democratic registered voters about a number of political notables and finds the field is wide open on both sides, although slightly less so on the Democratic side.

Nearly three quarters of Republicans (74%) haven’t a clue who they’d like to run on their ticket for the state’s next governor, with the rest divided among the current lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno (12%), “someone else” (11%), and state senator Jon Bramnick (4%).

On the Democratic side, more than a half of respondents say they’re uncertain when asked who they’d prefer as their nominee, with about a quarter (27%) choosing former governor and current State Senator Richard Codey. State Senate President Stephen Sweeney garners 9 percent support, “someone else” gets 6 percent, and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop garners 3 percent support.

Among those who chose “someone else” and were asked whom they might like to see run, few could identify anyone. The occasional Cory Booker and Barbara Buono were mentioned, but the majority just said anyone but the names already mentioned.

“Taken as a whole, these numbers basically show that thinking about political leadership post-Governor Christie isn’t on many people’s radars. It’s a long way to 2017, and the field is wide open to those considering a run as Christie’s successor,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “The sizable lead Senator Codey has over other Democrats is likely a sign of name recognition given his long history in New Jersey politics serving in various capacities. As we found earlier this year, Dick Codey trumps others not only in name recognition, but favorability as well. The take away from these number is this: Both Republicans and Democrats will have to determine how to define New Jersey’s future in the post-Christie years, and who ends up carrying that mantle into the future for either side is, as of yet, undetermined.”

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 721 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from September 1 through September 7, 2014, and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from September 1 through September 7, 2014 using a randomly selected sample of 721 registered voters who reside in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

Tables

Which of the following would you like to see as the Democratic nominee for governor when Governor Christie’s term expires? ROTATE NAMES
		Gender		Race		Public Employee Household
	All	Male	Female	White	Non-White	Yes	No
Steve Sweeney	9%	9	8	11	5	8	9
Steven Fulop	3%	6	1	2	4	6	2
Richard Codey	27%	30	25	32	22	41	23
Someone else	6%	7	6	6	7	2	7
DK/Refused (vol)	55%	48	60	49	61	44	58

 

Which of the following would you like to see as the Republican nominee for governor when Governor Christie’s term expires? ROTATE NAMES
		Gender		Race		Public Employee Household
	All	Male	Female	White	Non-White	Yes	No
Jon Bramnick	4%	3	4	3	10	3	4
Kim Guadagno	12%	11	13	12	8	15	11
Someone else	11%	14	8	10	14	14	9
DK/Refused (vol)	74%	73	75	74	68	68	76

 

Now I’m going ask about some people. If you haven’t heard of one of them, just say so. Have you heard of … [ROTATE LIST]?  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of… [MATCH ROTATION]?  MAY 2014 AND JANUARY 2013
	Haven’t heard of			Favorable			Unfavorable			Unsure
Steve Sweeney	46%			16%			15%			23%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	45	44	47	18	13	15	11	17	19	26	27	19
	56% (Jan ’13)			11% (Jan ’13)			17% (Jan ’13)			16% (Jan ’13)
Steven Fulop	85%			6%			2%			7%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	82	85	89	8	4	3	3	0	2	7	11	5
Richard Codey	41%			27%			10%			22%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	45	37	36	29	34	24	6	12	15	20	17	25
	45% (Jan ’13)			31% (Jan ’13)			10% (Jan ’13)			15% (Jan ’13)
Kim Guadagno	68%			11%			10%			10%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	69	66	66	8	8	18	15	10	5	8	15	11
	75% (Aug ’13)			9% (Aug ’13)			4% (Aug ’13)			12% (Aug ’13)
Jon Bramnick	86%			4%			3%			7%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	86	90	84	2	6	6	3	2	4	9	2	6
Jennifer Beck	80%			5%			4%			11%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	80	82	80	5	5	7	3	5	5	12	9	9

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

 

US1 and US2 released September 10, 2014

NJ1 and NJ2 released September 9, 2014

NJ3 through NJ5 released September 10, 2014

BAIL released September 10, 2014

NJ6 through NJ 8 released September 9, 2014

NCAA1 and NCAA2 withheld for subsequent release

Peach1 through Peach3 withheld

DRUGS1 through DRUGS4 withheld

 

D1       Do you consider yourself a….ROTATE… Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?

1          Democrat        [ASK D2]

2          Republican      [ASK D2]

3          Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]

4          Other [DON’T READ]

8          Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9          Ref [DON’T READ]

 

D1b     Which way to you lean?

1          Democrat       

2          Republican     

3          Neither                       

8          DK (Vol)        

 

D2A     [Ask Democrats only from D1 and D1b]

Which of the following would you like to see as the Democratic nominee for governor when

Governor Christie’s term expires? ROTATE NAMES

1          Steve Sweeney

2          Steven Fulop              

3          Richard Codey

4          Someone else

8          DK

9          Refused (vol)

 

D2B     [Ask Republicans only from D1 and D1B]

Which of the following would you like to see as the Republican nominee for governor when

Governor Christie’s term expires? ROTATE NAMES

1          Jon Bramnick

2          Kim Guadagno          

3          Someone else

8          DK

9          Refused (vol)

 

 

Sample Characteristics

 

		Registered voters N = 721; MoE = +/- 3.7
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	22%
	35-59	45%
	60+	31%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	67%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	12%
	Asian	4%
	Other/Refused	6%
Public Employee Household	Yes	23%
	No	75%
	Refused	2%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	40%
	Ind/DK/Refused	23%
	Repub	38%

 

Contact Us: publicmind@fdu.edu -- FDU Florham Campus, 285 Madison Avenue, Madison, N.J. 07940 -- 973-443-8500

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