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Embargoed for release 5am, Tuesday, April 29                                   6 pp.

Contact:  Krista Jenkins  908.328.8967 (cell) or 973.443.8390 (office)
kjenkins@fdu.edu

Can Any Republican Defeat Clinton?

Christie And Company Indistinguishable

The Republican Party continues its search for a presidential candidate who can attract more public support than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The most recent national survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Clinton is favored over a variety of possible Republican contenders in hypothetical head-to-head matchups among registered voters. The closest anyone comes to Clinton is Wisconsin Congressman and former Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan with 46 percent favoring Clinton to 38 percent for Ryan. However, once the margin of error is accounted for, all look virtually the same against Clinton if the election were to be held today.

“Although it’s early, the invisible primary has already begun with possible candidates courting influential supporters and donors. Early numbers offer some insight into who is likely to score big as the clock ticks down to filling the upcoming vacancy at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science.

These numbers tell a story for both Republicans and Democrats. The stability in support for Hillary Clinton suggests that the variety of Republicans who are signaling, to varying degrees, some interest in running for the presidency are evaluated the same.

“Christie, Paul, Ryan, Bush and Huckabee are not one and the same, and yet they all seem to do about the same among registered voters when paired against Hillary Clinton. No one’s record is impenetrable, but these findings point to the strong position Clinton would find herself in should she officially become a nominee for the Democratic primary,” said Jenkins.

As for the Republicans, the fact that the field remains wide open could be good news for the potential individual candidates. There’s plenty of time for each to define himself to voters without the baggage of being a candidate with little support relative to his colleagues.

The same poll also finds that Republicans are struggling with women voters. Across the board, Hillary Clinton does better among women voters, with a gender gap in the double digits for all of the potential Republican candidates.

“Historically, no one does well when they lag in support among women voters by the degree that’s observed here. Whatever message is being communicated to voters from the party or potential candidates, it looks like many women aren’t buying it. Whether Hillary Clinton’s message, persona, gender, or some combination is behind greater female support, these numbers only strengthen her current profile,” said Jenkins.

Chris Christie

Although riding high a few months ago, allegations in his home state of political corruption have complicated the prospective candidacy of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. News of the media- dubbed “Bridgegate” affair have been followed closely by New Jersey voters (See March 2014 PublicMind), but it remains an open question as to whether the scandal is resonating, if at all, with a national electorate? The current poll finds registered voters nationwide are paying decidedly less attention to Bridgegate than what the FDU poll has found in its statewide surveys of New Jersey voters. Nationally, around a fifth (18%) say they are paying very close attention to the story, with an additional quarter (28%) who are following the story somewhat closely. The majority – 54 percent – aren’t following the story closely at all.

As for whether Governor Christie’s claims of ignorance about his aides’ behavior in closing lanes on the George Washington Bridge for political reasons are perceived truthfully by those who are following the story, around a third (37%) nationwide give him the benefit of the doubt, with the majority (57%) who believe it’s unlikely that he knew nothing.

“One of the defining traits of Christie has been his honesty and the perception that his leadership rises above the partisan fray. Bridgegate has called these beliefs into question in his home state. It’s possible that without the governor’s troubles of late, the head to head numbers with Clinton would look different and Christie would be in a stronger position. He’s faced with voters nationally who are following the story, including Republicans who say they find his innocence very or somewhat unlikely. Bridgegate has removed Christie from the fast lane of presidential campaigning. Instead of being ahead, Christie is bumper to bumper with the Republican pack,” said Jenkins.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 1051 registered voters was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from April 21 through April 27, 2014 and has a margin of error of +/- three percentage points.

 

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from April 21 through April 27, 2014 using a randomly selected sample of 1051 registered voters. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- three percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

Tables

I know it’s early, but if the 2016 presidential election was held today, and it was between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and [INSERT NAME], the Republican, [ROTATE NAMES] who would be likely to vote for?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-29	30-44	45-59	60+
Hillary Clinton	46%	82	44	12	39	53	41	63	49	44	46	48
Chris Christie	36%	10	27	69	39	32	40	23	24	38	36	38
Hillary Clinton	48%	86	45	11	41	54	42	66	46	46	48	49
Rand Paul	37%	7	26	74	42	32	43	19	32	35	40	38
Hillary Clinton	49%	87	45	12	42	55	42	70	57	46	50	46
Jeb Bush	33%	5	21	72	38	30	41	11	19	33	34	41
Hillary Clinton	46%	86	42	9	41	51	40	65	50	42	45	49
Paul Ryan	38%	6	27	78	41	36	44	21	25	42	41	39
Hillary Clinton	49%	85	48	12	43	54	43	65	48	47	49	50
Mike Huckabee	36%	7	24	74	40	33	41	23	30	38	37	38

 

How closely, if at all, are you following the news about the investigation in New Jersey about lane closures on the George Washington Bridge?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-29	30-44	45-59	60+
Very closely	18%	24	13	16	18	18	16	25	13	17	19	22
Somewhat closely	28%	26	28	30	26	29	31	16	12	16	35	39
Not at all closely	54%	50	58	54	55	53	52	58	76	66	46	38
DK/Ref (vol)	1%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1

 

In your opinion, how likely or unlikely [ROTATE] is it that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is telling the truth about not knowing what his aides were doing when they closed the lanes on the George Washington Bridge? [Note: Asked only of those who responded “very” or “somewhat closely” in previous question; N = 479
		PID			Gender		Race
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non white
Very likely	20%	12	18	29	21	19	20	18
Somewhat likely	17%	11	17	24	14	20	18	14
Somewhat unlikely	19%	17	17	23	19	19	23	6
Very unlikely	38%	54	41	19	40	36	33	54
DK/Ref (vol)	5%	5	7	5	5	5	5	8

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 through US3 withheld for subsequent release

 

ACA1 through ACA3 withheld for future release

 

CC1     How closely, if at all, are you following the news about the investigation in New Jersey about lane closures on the George Washington Bridge?

1          Very closely

2          Somewhat closely

3          Not at all closely          SKIP to HERO1

8          DK/Refused                 SKIP to HERO1

 

CC2     In your opinion, how likely or unlikely [ROTATE] is it that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is telling the truth about not knowing what his aides were doing when they closed the lanes on the George Washington Bridge?

1          Very likely

2          Somewhat likely

3          Somewhat unlikely

4          Very unlikely

8          DK/Refused

 

HERO1 through HERO3 withheld for future release

 

RENT1A and RENT1B withheld

 

VICE1 through VICE5 withheld for future release

 

[ROTATE PRES1 THROUGH 5 USING THE INTRO IN PRES1 FOR ALL QUESTIONS]

 

PRES1             I know it’s early, but if the 2016 presidential election was held today, and it was between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Chris Christie, the Republican, [ROTATE} who would be likely to vote for?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Chris Christie

3          Someone else/neither [vol]

8          DK/Ref

 

PRES2             How about Hillary Clinton against Rand Paul, the Republican [ROTATE]?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Rand Paul

3          Someone else/neither [vol]

8          DK/Ref

 

PRES3             How about Hillary Clinton versus Jeb Bush, the Republican?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Jeb Bush

3          Someone else/neither [vol]

8          DK/Ref

 

PRES4             How about Hillary Clinton versus Paul Ryan, the Republican?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Paul Ryan

3          Someone else/neither [vol]

8          DK/Ref

 

PRES5             How about Hillary Clinton versus Mike Huckabee, the Republican?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Chris Christie

3          Someone else/neither [vol]

8          DK/Ref

 

Sample Characteristics

		Registered voters N = 1051; MoE = +/- 3.02
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-29	14%
	30-44	14%
	45-59	30%
	60+	26%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	72%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	10%
	Asian	2%
	Other/Refused	4%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	40%
	Ind/DK/Refused	23%
	Repub	37%

 

Contact Us: publicmind@fdu.edu -- FDU Florham Campus, 285 Madison Avenue, Madison, N.J. 07940 -- 973-443-8500

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