Download this release as a PDF document

Immediate release, Wednesday, December 17                                                 7 pp.

Contact:  Krista Jenkins  973.443.8390  or kjenkins@fdu.edu

Americans Hungry for Compromise;

Romney Leads Republican Pack

The most recent national survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds that Americans want the president to compromise in his final years in office in order to pass legislation. By a two-to-one margin, more Americans say President Obama should compromise with the new Congress whenever possible in order to get things done (59%), rather than stay true to his beliefs, even though it may mean little is accomplished (27%).

            “Rhetoric on the right and left may sound divisive and reflect a ‘take no prisoners’ attitude, but it’s clear the public doesn’t agree and just wants to see the needs of the country addressed. Even a plurality of Democrats seem to be tired with the gridlock and prefer compromise over principled objections,” said Krista Jenkins, director of the poll and professor of political science.

Obama continues to be mired in low approval ratings — generating the approval of 38 percent of Americans nationwide, with 48 percent who say they disapprove. Over half of respondents (56%) are concerned about the direction the country is headed, with barely a quarter (28%) who say it’s headed down the right path.

            With the 2016 presidential election just over two years out, current and former politicians will have to play catch up to reach Hillary Clinton. Right now, 54 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the former secretary of state, with 38 percent who evaluate her unfavorably. The closest Republican potential candidate is former governor of Massachusetts and one time presidential nominee, Mitt Romney. Slightly fewer than half of respondents (46%) have a favorable opinion of him, with 38 percent who report an unfavorable opinion.

            “Formal candidacies are likely to be declared soon, perhaps as early as January. Beginning the long, tough, slog toward party nominations starts with good name recognition and positive favorability ratings which are likely to help with fund-raising and securing early support,” said Jenkins, “Right now, it looks like the frontrunners within both parties, are those from the establishment wings of their parties.”

            On the Republican side, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, comes in second to Romney with favorability/unfavorability ratings that are about even. Thirty-four percent of respondents feel positively toward him, with 32 percent who say the opposite. Tied with Governor Bush is the current governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who has virtually identical numbers (34% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Following Christie is Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. As with Christie and Bush, opinion is divided over the senator, with 30 percent favorability and 29 percent unfavorability. Trailing behind, is Texas Governor Rick Perry (26% to 30%, respectively), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (23% to 27%, respectively) and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (18 to 15%, respectively). Walker is known by relatively few Americans currently, with 51 percent who say they’ve never heard of him.

                “Governor Christie’s favorables are no better than many other Republicans and are worse than Mitt Romney’s. It was once assumed that Christie was the Northeast Republican successor to Romney. It appears that Bridgegate has tarnished him,” said Jenkins.

            On the Democratic side, around a quarter of all Americans (26%) have a favorable opinion of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, with a fifth (18%) who do not. Almost four-in-ten (38%), however, remain unacquainted with her.

            “Another takeaway from these numbers is the disconnect between political insiders and the general electorate. The bottom line is that a majority of Americans don’t know many of these former and current elected officials. As a result, there’s plenty of room for those who aren’t looking as good as they’d like to introduce and define themselves to the American public,” said Jenkins.

                Among self-identified Republicans, Romney is the clear winner, with 73 percent who evaluate him favorably. Behind him is Bush, with 56% support, followed by Rand Paul who is the only other possible candidate to top 50% favorability among the party faithful (53%). Christie and Perry do the same among Republicans (47%), with Cruz (42%) and Walker (32%) trailing behind.

            “If Romney isn’t in the running, there doesn’t appear to be a possible candidate currently captivating the base in numbers that eclipse those of his potential opponents,” said Jenkins.

                As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is seen favorably by 81 percent, compared with Warren’s 46 percent. A third of all Democrats (33%), say they don’t know who Elizabeth Warren is, compared with just two percent who don’t know Hillary Clinton.

                “Warren looks like someone to watch. Clinton has been around for decades, but the first-term senator from Massachusetts who took Republican Scott Brown’s seat clearly has been gaining a national reputation with her criticisms of cronyism on Wall Street,” said Jenkins.  

                In an open-ended question about whom respondents think their party will select as their nominee in 2016, Democrats are more likely to give a name (60%) than Republicans (41%). Over half of all Democrats (54%) believe Hillary Clinton will be their party’s nominee in 2016. Republicans, on the other hand, are largely unsure. Of those who do believe they know, 11 percent say it’s likely to be Jeb Bush, 9 percent believe Romney will prevail, and 7 percent identify Chris Christie. Other names given total a combined 13 percent -- comprised of those who garnered a percent or two at the most.

 

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 1002 adults aged 18 and older was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from December 8 through December 15, 2014 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1percentage points.

 

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from December 8 through December 15 using a randomly selected sample of 1002 adults aged 18 and older. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. 700 interviews were conducted on landlines and 302 were conducted on cell phones. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

                                                                                       

Tables

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of the? [Rotate names]
	Haven’t heard of			Favorable			Unfavorable			Unsure
Chris Christie	21%			34%			33%			11%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	19	27	17	28	27	47	41	35	23	11	9	12
Rand Paul	27%			30%			29%			13%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	27	39	20	16	19	53	45	30	13	12	12	14
Hillary Clinton	2%			54%			38%			5%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	2	2	1	81	53	25	13	33	70	3	11	4
Jeb Bush	17%			34%			32%			16%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	19	26	13	22	23	56	44	32	18	15	18	14
Ted Cruz	37%			23%			27%			12%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	36	49	32	11	11	42	41	24	13	11	15	12
Scott Walker	51%			18%			15%			15%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	48	58	48	8	14	32	27	11	6	17	16	14
Elizabeth Warren	38%			26%			18%			17%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	33	45	40	46	21	10	10	15	30	12	19	20
Rick Perry	28%			26%			30%			16%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	27	40	23	15	16	47	46	27	17	12	16	13
Mitt Romney	5%			46%			38%			10%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	4	5	3	28	37	73	59	39	14	7	19	10

 

Regardless of your own personal preference, who do you think the [Republican/Democratic] party will nominate as their presidential candidate for 2016? [Record answer]
	Democrats (n =406; MoE = +/- 4.9)	Republicans  (N = 339; MoE = +/- 5.3)
Don’t know	40%	59%
Jeb Bush	-	11%
Mitt Romney	-	9%
Chris Christie	-	7%
Hillary Clinton	54%	-
Combo other names	6%	13%

 

To begin, do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-29	30-44	45-59	60+
Approve	38%	67	33	9	35	40	29	59	44	42	29	35
Disapprove	48%	20	43	85	49	47	58	25	38	38	59	56
DK/Mixed/ Ref (vol)	14%	13	24	6	16	13	14	16	18	19	12	8
In your opinion do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track [rotate]?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-29	30-44	45-59	60+
Right direction	28%	48	23	8	32	25	22	43	34	29	24	25
Wrong direction	56%	35	54	84	55	58	65	36	48	53	62	63
DK/Mixed/ Ref (vol)	15%	18	23	7	14	16	13	20	17	18	14	13

 

In your opinion, which of the following strategies for dealing with the new Congress should President Obama adopt in the final two years of his administration: Compromise whenever possible in order to get legislation passed OR stay true to his beliefs even though it may mean little is accomplished [rotate]?
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Nonwhite	18-29	30-44	45-59	60+
Compromise	59%	49	54	73	60	59	65	47	54	54	65	63
Stay true to beliefs	27%	38	30	14	28	26	23	36	32	32	21	24
DK/Mixed/ Ref (vol)	14%	13	16	13	12	15	12	18	14	15	13	13

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1.    To begin, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK/Unsure/mixed [DON’T READ]

9          Refused [DON’T READ]

 

US2.    In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure [DON’T READ]

9          Refused [DON’T READ]

 

US3     In your opinion, which of the following strategies for dealing with the new Congress should President Obama adopt in the final two years of his administration: Compromise whenever possible in order to get legislation passed OR stay true to his beliefs even though it may mean little is accomplished [ROTATE]

1          Compromise

2          Stay true to beliefs

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

EDUC1 thru EDUC6 held for future release

H1 through H4 held for future release

RENT1 through RENT2 held for future release

PK1 through PK3 held for future release

CONS1 through CONS6 held for future release

NEWS1 through NEWS4 held for future release

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of them. ROTATE NAMES

IDA     Chris Christie

IDB      Rand Paul

IDC      Hillary Clinton

IDD     Jeb Bush

IDE      Ted Cruz

IDF      Scott Walker

IDG     Elizabeth Warren

IDH     Rick Perry

 

D1       Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE… Democrat,

a Republican, or an Independent?

1          Democrat         [Ask PRESB]

2          Republican      [Ask PRESA]

3          Independent [If Independent, ask D1A]

4          Other [DON’T READ]

8          Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9          Ref [DON’T READ]

 

D1A     Which way do you lean?

1          Democrat         [Ask PRESB]

2          Republican      [Ask PRESA]

3          Neither            

8          DK (Vol)

 

[PRESA asked of Republicans/PRESB asked of Democrats – both based on responses to D1 and

D1A]

 

PRESA/B          Regardless of your own personal preference, who do you think the [Republican/Democratic] party will nominate as their presidential candidate for 2016? (Record answer)

1          Name (record answer)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

 

 

 

Sample Characteristics

 

		N = 1002; MoE = +/- 3.1
Gender	Male	48%
	Female	52%
Age	18-29	22%
	30-44	25%
	45-59	28%
	60+	24%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	67%
	African American	10%
	Hispanic	14%
	Asian	2%
	Other/Refused	7%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	40%
	Ind/DK/Refused	26%
	Repub	34%

Contact Us: publicmind@fdu.edu -- FDU Florham Campus, 285 Madison Avenue, Madison, N.J. 07940 -- 973-443-8500

Copyright © 2001-2015, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved.