PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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Support for Marijuana Legalization Reaches New High in NJ in Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll

Opinion is divided in the Garden State over the legalization of marijuana, but the overtime trend indicates the public is leaning toward supporting marijuana reform. The most recent statewide survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds 49 percent favor legalization of the substance for personal use, with 46 percent opposed. This represents an eight-point swing since when the question was last asked in January 2014. At that time, 41 percent favored legalization with 52 percent opposed.

“With national momentum building for the legalization of marijuana, it looks like the pendulum in New Jersey is swinging in the direction of legalization,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “A little more than a year ago, a majority was clearly opposed. Today, that’s just not the case.”

compare 2014 to 2015

One of the determinative characteristics of those who favor legalization is past experience. Of those surveyed, 44 percent say they have tried marijuana, comparable to the 42 percent who reported use in January 2014. Of those who report trying marijuana, seven in ten favor legalization, as compared with 29 percent who have never used.

Other groups to show demonstrably more support include men, whites, and millennials. Among men, 56 percent favor legalization as compared with 41 percent of women. A majority of white respondents (53%) support legalization.  Approval among non-whites was lower (39%). Millennials offer some of the most robust support for legalization as compared with other age groups. Nearly two-thirds (62%) favor legalization.

Strict regulations to protect children also had an impact on favorability. Twelve percent who opposed legalization said they would change their minds if such safeguards were in place. Significantly more (83%) say regulations would make no difference.

The same survey found that how questions regarding legalization are asked makes little difference to public opinion. Asking about legalization for personal use yields virtually the same results as a more detailed question that asks “Do you favor or oppose taxing, regulating, and legalizing small quantities of marijuana for personal use by adults, just like alcohol?”

“Raising the specter of not only legalization, but taxation and regulation doesn’t do anything to move the needle. You can liken it to alcohol, but few are persuaded either way,” said Jenkins.

PublicMind worked with the New Jersey affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union on questions related to marijuana use and legalization. According to Udi Ofer, Executive Director of the ACLU of New Jersey and a founding steering committee member of New Jersey United for Marijuana Reform, “Support for legalizing marijuana in New Jersey is clearly growing, as more and more New Jerseyans back taxing and regulating marijuana for personal use by adults. It's time we stopped making tens of thousands of arrests per year in New Jersey for an activity that the last 23 years of U.S. presidents have engaged in. It's time to end the failed status quo and replace it with a safe, controlled and regulated system of marijuana legalization.”

 

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 15-21, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 792 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 points, including the design effect.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846                For more information, please call 201.692.7032

 

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 15 through 21 using a randomly selected sample of 792 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 440 interviews were conducted on landlines and 352 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University and the New Jersey affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union. The New Jersey affiliate worked with PublicMind on the development of questions related to the legalization of marijuana only.

 

Tables

Here in New Jersey, do you favor or oppose [rotate] legalizing small quantities of marijuana for personal use? N = 403

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Tried marijuana?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Favor

48%

60

40

40

57

39

52

37

67

30

66

49

34

Oppose

45%

31

52

56

37

53

43

51

29

61

26

43

59

DK/Ref (vol)

7%

9

8

4

6

8

6

12

4

9

9

8

7

 

Here in New Jersey, do you favor or oppose [rotate] taxing, regulating, and legalizing small quantities of marijuana for personal use by adults, just like alcohol? N = 389

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Tried marijuana?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Favor

49%

56

49

41

55

44

54

42

73

29

58

51

42

Oppose

46%

39

45

56

42

50

43

50

24

65

35

44

55

DK/Ref (vol)

5%

5

5

3

4

6

4

8

4

6

6

6

4

 

Legalization: Combined responses to above two tables

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Tried marijuana?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Favor

49%

54

46

40

56

41

53

39

70

29

62

50

38

Oppose

46%

35

48

56

39

52

43

51

27

63

30

44

57

DK/Ref (vol)

5%

7

6

4

5

7

4

10

4

88

7

7

5

 

The preceding tables reflect responses to an experiment sponsored by the New Jersey affiliate of American Civil Liberties Union. Half of the sample was asked about legalization using a similar question that was used in January 2014; the remaining half was asked using a slightly different question.

January 2014

Here in New Jersey, do you favor or oppose [rotate] legalizing small quantities of marijuana for recreational use?

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Tried marijuana?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

No

Favor

41%

50

42

30

50

34

44

34

62

25

Oppose

52%

44

49

66

46

59

50

60

35

66

DK/Ref (vol)

6%

6

9

4

4

7

5

7

3

8

 

Would strict government regulations designed to prevent kids from accessing marijuana make you change your mind and favor taxing, regulating, and legalizing small quantities of marijuana for personal use by adults, just like alcohol, or would regulations make no difference? N = 361

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Tried marijuana?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Change mind

12%

13

11

12

8

15

9

17

12

11

14

13

11

No difference

83%

84

82

84

89

78

86

79

85

83

80

82

84

Depends (vol)

2%

0

3

2

0

3

1

2

1

2

4

1

2

DK/Ref (vol)

3%

3

4

2

2

4

3

3

2

4

2

4

3

 

Many people have tried marijuana at some point in their life. What about you/ Have you ever tried marijuana?

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

18-34

35-59

60+

Yes

44%

46

39

45

46

42

48

37

49

49

36

No

51%

50

56

49

49

54

48

60

49

46

59

DK/Ref (vol)

4%

4

4

6

5

5

5

3

2

5

5

 

 

January 2014

Many people have tried marijuana at some point in their life. What about you/ Have you ever tried marijuana?

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-white

Yes

42%

46

41

37

45

38

45

35

No

52%

49

52

57

48

57

49

62

DK/Ref (vol)

6%

5

6

6

7

5

6

4

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

 

 

Registered voters

N = 792; MoE = +/- 3.7

Gender

Male

49%

 

Female

51%

Age

18-34

24%

 

35-59

41%

 

60+

33%

 

Refused

2%

Race

White

66%

 

African American

11%

 

Hispanic

15%

 

Asian

3%

 

Other/Refused

5%

Union household

Self

13%

 

Someone else

11%

 

No/Refused/DK

76%

Party (with leaners)

Dem

44%

 

Ind/DK/Refused

23%

 

Repub

34%