PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release Wednesday, April 22                6 pages         

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

NJ Says Christie vs. Clinton in 2016

If New Jersey voters were deciding the 2016 nomination contest, it would be Clinton vs. Christie, according to the most recent statewide survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

In the race for 2016 among both declared and potential Republican candidates, Garden State Republicans favor, in order, Governor Christie (20%), “someone else” (15%), Scott Walker (14%),  Jeb Bush (13%), and Ted Cruz and Rand Paul (both at 8%). The biggest vote getter among the group was the “don’t know” category (22%).

“Nationally the field remains largely wide open on the Republican side. The only twist is back at home, Christie remains the favored son by a narrow margin,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “Of course, it would help his case if he was the clear favorite among New Jersey Republicans, and other establishment candidates like Bush and Walker were handily eclipsed by Republican support for Christie. But, with his continued struggles among voters back home, Christie’s slight edge over others is a win.”

Men divide their loyalties pretty equally among Bush (16%), Christie (18%), and Walker (17%), but Governor Christie stands apart from the rest through his appeal to women. Among named candidates, Governor Christie is the one to do the best among women (24%), a significant point given the importance that women voters have and continue to play in American elections.

On the Democratic side, after a week of official campaigning, Hillary Clinton maintains a behemoth lead over anyone who might want to challenge her. Sixty-two percent favor her with nine percent who say they favor another Democratic candidate, and just over a quarter (27%) who say they don’t know whom they’d support.

President Obama remains supported and opposed by about equal numbers of registered voters in the state. Currently 44 percent support the president, with 45 percent opposed. Democrats (75%), non-whites (73%) and younger voters (54%) offer the most support, with Republicans (86%) the most decisive in their opposition for his leadership.

As for who might replace Governor Christie on the Democratic side when he leaves office on or before his term expires, PublicMind asked about three possible Democratic contenders who have received the lion’s share of speculation of late: Senate President Steve Sweeney, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former Ambassador to Germany and Goldman Sachs CEO Phil Murphy. Garden State voters were asked first if they’d ever heard of these men, and whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression.

The long-term senator from southern New Jersey, Steve Sweeney, is known by around four-in-ten Garden State voters (44%), with Fulop and Murphy unknown to vast majorities across the state (87% and 88% respectively). Sweeney’s attractiveness (13%) is balanced by an equal number who have an unfavorable opinion of him (15%).

“Since Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by around 700,000, the Democratic field for 2017 will be watched closely.  Name recognition is often an early proxy for support. Sweeney has the edge right now, but there are still months and months of the journey to go.”

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 790 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from April 13 through April 19. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from April 13 through April 19 using a randomly selected sample of 785 registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

I know it’s early, but if the election for Republican nominee for president were held today, who would you vote for? [Rotate]  N = 268 MoE = +/- 6.0
		Gender
	All	Male	Female
Ted Cruz	8%	11	3
Rand Paul	8%	7	9
Jeb Bush	13%	16	8
Chris Christie	20%	18	24
Scott Walker	14%	17	10
Other (vol)	15%	15	16
DK (vol)	22%	16	31
Refused (vol)	0	0	0

 

I know it’s early, but if the election for the Democratic nominee for president were held today, who would you vote for? [Rotate]  N =323 MoE = +/- 5.5
		Gender
	All	Male	Female
Hillary Clinton	62%	52	70
Another Democratic candidate	9%	16	5
DK (vol)	27%	31	25
Refused (vol)	1%	2	1

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
	All	PID			Gender		Race		Age
		Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	44%	75	40	8	40	48	30	73	54	41	40
Disapprove	45%	14	38	86	50	39	57	17	32	49	47
DK(vol)	10%	10	17	6	9	11	11	9	11	9	11
Refused (vol)	2%	1	4	0	1	2	2	1	2	1	2

 

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?
	All	PID			Gender		Race		Age
		Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	36%	64	30	7	34	37	25	61	46	35	30
Wrong track	55%	27	51	89	60	50	66	28	45	58	57
DK (vol)	8%	8	15	3	5	11	7	9	7	6	12
Refused (vol)	2%	1	4	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2

 

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of them? [Rotate names]
	Haven’t heard of			Favorable			Unfavorable			Unsure
Steve Sweeney	56%			13%			15%			16%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	59	54	51	15	12	12	12	16	21	14	18	16
Steven Fulop	87%			5%			2%			6%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Ind	Repub
	86	81	90	7	6	3	2	3	2	5	10	6
Phil Murphy	88%			4%			2%			6%
	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem	Dem	Ind	Repub	Dem
	87	94	86	5	87	94	86	5	87	94	86	5

 

	Haven’t heard of		Favorable		Unfavorable		Unsure
	Sep 2014	Jan 2013	Sep 2014	Jan 2013	Sep 2014	Jan 2013	Sep 2014	Jan 2013
Steve Sweeney	46%	56%	16%	11%	15%	17%	23%	16%
Steven Fulop	85%	-	6%	-	2%	-	7%	-

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1.    First, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK/Unsure/mixed [DON’T READ]

9          Refused [DON’T READ]

 

US2.    In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure [DON’T READ]

9          Refused. [DON’T READ]

 

NJ1 and NJ2 released April 21

 

ID. Now I’m going ask about some people. If you haven’t heard of one of them, just say so. Have you heard of … [ROTATE LIST]?  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of… [MATCH ROTATION]? Would that be very or somewhat?

ID1 and ID2 withheld for subsequent release

ID3      Stephen Sweeney

ID4      Phil Murphy

ID5      Steven Fulop

ID1-5    Have you heard of [INSERT]?

1          Yes

2          No (Skip to next name)

 

ID1-5   Do you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

9          Refused (vol)

 

RM1 through RM6 withheld for subsequent release

CJ1 through CJ10 withheld for subsequent release

CORR1 through CORR5 withheld for subsequent release

Finally, just some questions about yourself…

 

D1       Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE…

Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]

4          Other [DON’T READ]

8          Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9          Ref [DON’T READ]

 

D1b     Which way do you lean?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Neither

8          DK (Vol)

 

If DEM/LEAN DEM ASK PRESD; IF REPUB/LEAN REPUB ASK PRESR

 

PRESR I know it’s early, but if the election for President were held today, who would you vote for?

1          Ted Cruz

2          Rand Paul

3          Jeb Bush

4          Chris Christie

5          Scott Walker

6          Other

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

PRESD I know it’s early, but if the election for the Democratic nominee were held today, who would you

vote for?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Someone else

3          Other

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		Registered voters N = 785; MoE = +/- 3.5
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	24%
	35-59	42%
	60+	33%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	66%
	African American	13%
	Hispanic	12%
	Asian	4%
	Other/Refused	5%
Union household	Self	13%
	Someone else	11%
	No/Refused/DK	76%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	41%
	Ind/DK/Refused	25%
	Repub	34%