PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release Tuesday, January 13, 2015                           

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

State of the State And the Governor: Not Great

As Governor Christie prepares to deliver his fifth State of the State address, he faces a divided public, with more in the state disapproving of his leadership than approving, and, by an even wider margin, more residents saying the state is headed down the wrong track.

The most recent statewide survey of registered voters in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Governor Christie’s approval numbers upside down and virtually unchanged from October, the last time PublicMind queried voters in the state. Thirty-nine percent say they approve of the job he’s doing as governor, and 47 percent say they disapprove. Half (49%) express concern over the direction the state is headed, with just over a third (36%) content with its trajectory. Governor Christie’s approval rating remains low, he’s lost the approval of female voters, and New Jerseyans feel he is focused on becoming president and shirking his gubernatorial duties.

“This is the first time Governor Christie faces a public with numbers like these in regard to his leadership,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “Regardless of what he says, many in the state will receive his words with skepticism given their concerns over his leadership and the overall health of governance in New Jersey. Voters’ increasing pessimism about the direction of the state mirrors their decreasing approval of the governor’s performance. In his State of the State address, he has to make a case not just for himself, but for New Jersey because voter opinion is upside down on both.”

Governor Christie’s struggles continue with groups whose support once defined him as a unique politician. Public employee union households, Democrats, and independents align themselves with the governor’s critics, even though they once evaluated him in numbers favorable and enviable to other leaders seeking the panache of bipartisan appeal. Currently, just over a quarter of public employee union households (27%) and Democrats (27%), and 40 percent of independents offer approval for the governor’s job performance. Contrast these numbers with those before the Bridgegate story broke: In September 2013, 42 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents, and 38 percent of public employee union households approved of the governor.

Women are another group who appear to have soured on the governor. Although many of PublicMind’s past surveys have found the gender gap negligible in evaluations of the governor, that is no longer the case. Slightly more than a third of women (34%) approve of Governor Christie, with significantly more men saying the same (44%). A year ago, in January 2014, 48 percent of both men and women evaluated the governor favorably.

“Declining support is normal for any second term governor, especially a Republican in a blue state. And yet, given the governor’s obvious political ambitions, waning support outside his party faithful makes him a tougher sell to voters outside the state who are looking for a bridge builder,” said Jenkins.

Governor Christie’s actions of late appear suspect to many New Jerseyans. By a wide margin, voters believe he is more concerned with a potential run for president (53%) than acting as governor of the state (32%), and 72 percent say his decisions are influenced by his desire to run for the White House most or some of the time, with 31 percent saying most of the time.

“These numbers point to the difficulty the governor is likely to have with the public as the clock moves toward 2016. Governing and campaigning are both full time jobs. Even though he’s technically not doing the latter yet, the public seems to believe he’s already starting to give up on the former,” said Jenkins.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 721 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from January 5 through January 11. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from January 5 through January 11 using a randomly selected sample of 721 registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-  3.7 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	39%	27	40	58	44	34	43	31	27	43	36	39	41
Disapprove	47%	64	45	22	41	52	44	52	59	43	49	47	45
Neither (vol)	8%	6	9	12	11	6	8	9	8	9	9	9	8
DK/Ref (vol)	5%	4	6	7	4	7	5	6	5	5	5	5	6

 

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Rotate right direction/wrong track]
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	36%	28	39	46	41	31	35	37	26	38	43	33	35
Wrong track	49%	59	47	37	45	54	50	48	62	46	42	53	49
DK/Ref (vol)	15%	13	15	17	14	16	15	15	12	15	15	12	16
Do you think he is more concerned with being governor of New Jersey or running for president [Rotate]?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Governor	32%	22	28	49	33	31	33	29	24	34	36	32	29
Running for prez	53%	65	54	34	53	53	52	58	60	51	50	53	55
Same (vol)	5%	4	6	7	6	4	6	6	6	5	4	6	5
DK/Ref (vol)	10%	9	12	11	8	13	11	7	11	10	10	10	11

 

In your opinion, how often are the decisions he makes as governor influenced by his desire to run for president? Would you say most of the time, some of the time, rarely, or never?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Most	31%	42	32	17	30	32	31	34	37	30	31	32	31
Some	41%	39	37	48	41	42	43	39	41	42	43	39	45
Rarely	14%	7	16	23	17	12	15	12	12	15	14	16	12
Never	6%	7	3	7	7	6	5	9	3	7	5	7	6
DK/Ref (vol)	6%	5	12	4	4	8	6	6	6	6	7	5	7

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 withheld for future release

 

NJ1.     And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is

doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

3          Neither [vol] or Neutral [vol]

8          DK [vol] or both [vol]

 

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track                

8          DK/Unsure (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

 

NJ3 through NJ5 withheld for future release

 

NJ6      Do you think he is more concerned with being governor of New Jersey or running for

president [rotate]?

1          Governor

2          Running for president

3          Same

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ7      In your opinion, how often are the decisions he makes as governor influenced by his

desire to run for president? Would you say most of the time, some of the time, rarely, or never?

1          Most of the time

2          Some

3          Rarely

4          Never

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		Registered voters N = 721; MoE = +/- 3.7
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	21%
	35-59	42%
	60+	35%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	67%
	African American	12%
	Hispanic	11%
	Asian	5%
	Other/Refused	4%
Union household	Self	14%
	Someone else	9%
	No/Refused/DK	77
Party (with leaners)	Dem	45%
	Ind/DK/Refused	25%
	Repub	30%