Like the NJ Senate,
the 36th district
is an even match
see
also:
Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response
The 36th District Senate race between incumbent Democrat Paul Sarlo (35 years old) and Republican challenger John Kelly (77 years old) appears to be a dead heat, with 36% supporting Sarlo and 34% supporting Kelly according to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind. Including leaners gives Sarlo a 39%-35% advantage—but still within the survey sample’s margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Another 23% of likely voters say they are undecided. “How these undecideds break will obviously tell the tale on election day,” said Bruce Larson, professor of political science and survey analyst at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “But often, challengers do better among voters who are undecided this late in the game,” added Larson.
The candidates are from different generations but in many ways they are evenly matched in voters’ minds. By a margin of 36%-12% voters have a favorable opinion of Sarlo with 51% offering no opinion. By a margin of 41%-11% voters offer a favorable view of Kelly with 47% having no opinion.
Among Democrats, 71% say they would vote for Sarlo if the election was held today, while 12% would support Republican Kelly and 16% are unsure. Among Republicans, 76% say they would vote for Kelly if the election was held today, while 15% would cross to Sarlo and 9% are unsure. Independents break evenly with 25% for Sarlo, 28% for Kelly, and 40% undecided.
“The district leans Democratic” said Larson, “but, on the other hand, the issues most important to voters in this district are those that Republicans tend to do well on.” Asked the generic question of whether they will vote for Democratic or Republican candidates for state assembly and senate, 32% say Democratic candidates and 26% say Republicans. Asked what the top priority for the legislature should be, voters pick controlling taxes and spending--and they give the edge to Republicans for dealing with these issues.
“Negative views of the governor are not quite as pronounced here as in other parts of the state, which gives Democrats some breathing room,” added Larson. While 39% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong supporter of the governor, 58% say otherwise: 24% would be more likely, 18% would be neither more nor less likely, and 16% don’t know. And while 29% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong opponent of the governor, 69% say otherwise: 30% say they’d be less likely, 18% say they’d be neither more nor less likely, and 22% are unsure. “Still,” said Larson, “we’re unlikely to see Democratic candidates here showcasing the governor in their campaigns.”
Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll of 401 registered likely voters in the 36th legislative district was conducted from October 10 through October 15 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Poll Analysis
Contacts:
Bruce Larson 973.443.8727
Peter Woolley 973.670.3239
Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.
For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.