Democrats Hold the Line in 38th
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Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response
In the race for New Jersey’s 38th Senate District, Joseph Coniglio, the incumbent Democrat, leads Rose Marie Heck, the Republican challenger by a margin of 48%-35% according to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind. Including leaners turns Coniglio’s lead to a 51%-38% advantage. Undecided voters account for another 10%.
“The 38th district hasn’t been shy about ousting incumbents in the past,” said Bruce Larson, professor of political science and survey analyst at Fairleigh Dickinson University, “but if Republicans hope to pick up a Senate seat here, they will have to drive up the incumbent’s negatives in the two weeks that remain.”
“Democrats and Republicans are mostly holding their bases,” added Larson, “but the Democrats have a registration advantage in the 38th.” Among Democrats, 85% percent say they will stick with their party’s candidate, while 11% will vote for the Republican, Heck, and only 3% are unsure. Among Republicans, 82% say they will vote for their party’s candidate, while 10% will cross over to the Democrat, Coniglio, and 7% are undecided.
Independents are breaking evenly so far, with about one-third for Coniglio, one-third for Heck and one-third still undecided. “Voter turnout will count for a lot in this always-competitive district,” commented Bruce Larson. “If Coniglio is effective at mobilizing his base—especially in areas such as Fort Lee and Fair Lawn, where he won solidly in 2001—it could be enough to push him over the victory line on Election Day.”
“The Governor doesn’t appear to be hurting his party’s chances as much as one might expect in this district—but he’s certainly not helping Democrats’ chances much either,” added Larson. While 41% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong supporter of the governor, 31% say they would be more likely, and 27% say they would be neither more nor less likely. And while 32% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong opponent of the governor, 32% say they would be less likely, and 36% say they would be neither more nor less likely.
“When it comes to New Jersey’s two biggest issues--controlling taxes and spending—neither party enjoys a significant edge in the 38th,” said Larson. Asked “which party does a better job” controlling taxes and spending, voters put the two parties in a statistical dead heat. But in this densely packed suburban district, voters give Democrats a significant edge on “protecting the environment” and “dealing with overdevelopment and sprawl.”
Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll of 402 likely registered voters in the 38th legislative district was conducted from October 15 through October 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Poll Analysis
Contacts:
Bruce Larson 973.443.8727
Peter Woolley 973.670.3239
Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.
For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.