Governor No Help in 4th District
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Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response
If Democrats hope to break the 20-20 tie in the state Senate, the 4th legislative district may not be the place to pick up a seat. George Geist, the incumbent Republican leads Fred Madden, the Democratic challenger, by a margin of 49% to 27% according to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind. When leaners are included, Geists’ margin stretches to 51% - 30%.
The 4th district is reflective of the state insofar as registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans. But, asked a generic question of whether they will vote for Republican or Democratic candidates for assembly and senate, respondents offer a dead heat with 30% favoring Republicans and 30% favoring Democrats. And these likely voters say that they are less likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong supporter of the governor and more likely to vote for a candidate who is a strong opponent of the governor.
The legislature’s priorities according to these voters should be controlling taxes (38%) and dealing with the auto insurance problem (24%). “These issues have dogged this governor just as they have dogged several governors before him,” said Bruce Larson, a professor of political science and survey analyst at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “New Jersey politics is often defined by who can position themselves most effectively on two issues that are not going away.” In the 4th legislative district, 47% of likely voters say neither party does a better job with auto insurance. Only 20% say the Democrats do a better job on this issue and 15% say Republicans. Another 18% say they are unsure.
In addition to skepticism of the governor, Republicans in this district have other advantages. Geist, an incumbent for more than 10 years, is well enough known that two-thirds of likely voters offer an opinion of him and a majority have a favorable opinion. By contrast a majority say they either have not heard of Madden or have heard of him but have no opinion.
The PublicMind survey was taken of 419 very likely voters in a district that comprises part of Gloucester and Camden counties. It was conducted from September 29 through October 5 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Poll Analysis
Contacts:
Bruce Larson 973.443.8727
Peter Woolley 973.670.3239
Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.
For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.