I’m from New Jersey… I will adjust:
Garden State Consumers Optimistic for Coming Year

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Tabular Results
Survey Details

January 24, 2003

Two-thirds of New Jerseyans agree that business conditions in the state are worse now than a year ago.  But they are divided over whether they are personally better or worse off than they were a year ago and they are optimistic about the coming year.  According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, almost five in ten Garden Staters believe they will be financially better off a year from now. Another three in ten believe things will be the same or are uncertain what will happen. Only 22% believe they will be worse off.

 Residents’ personal optimism is in contrast to their view of the state’s general business climate.  While 48% think they will be better off financially in a year, only 43% think business conditions will be better a year from now.  And where only 22% think their personal finances will be worse off a year from now, 34% say business conditions in New Jersey will be worse.

 Comparing expected purchases to past purchases, fewer households expect to buy a car, a computer, or a major home appliance this coming year as compared to what they reported over the last year.  But more Garden Staters expect to purchase an airline ticket for a pleasure trip, go away on vacation for a week or more, and buy or build a home than reported doing so over the past year.

 About a quarter of respondents say it is somewhat or very difficult to make payments on the outstanding balance of their credit cards. But 58% say it is not very or not at all difficult to make payments and 18% say they don’t use or don’t have credit cards. At the same time, 70% say they expect housing prices in their area will go up in the next 12 months.

 The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll is a benchmark study for two indices. The New Jersey Index of Consumer Performance is a single composite number of what consumers report about their finances and purchasing over the past year. The New Jersey Index of Consumer Intentions is a composite number of what consumers expect in the coming year.

 For this benchmark study, the retrospective index number is 33. The prospective index number is 42. The difference in the two numbers reflects New Jersey’s agreement on a dismal past year and optimism for the coming year. “New Jersey consumers are cautious but confident,” said James Almeida, survey analyst and a professor of entrepreneurial studies at Fairleigh Dickinson University’s College of Business. “Consumers have been affected by the economic turmoil but at the same time they’re treating this as a passing situation. They can deal with it because they think conditions will get better.”

 Responses vary little from among regions of the state. But men are more optimistic than women, Republicans more optimistic than Democrats, and those in the higher income brackets are more optimistic than those with less income.

 Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin think that President Bush’s policies have helped rather than hurt the state. But as many Democrats believe Governor McGreevey’s policies have hurt the economy as believe that his policies have helped. Independents are most likely to be unsure of the President and Governor’s effect or to think they have had no effect. “Democrats in the state are not supporting the Governor as strongly as Republicans are supporting the President,” said Peter J. Woolley, Executive Director of the PublicMind. “This will make matters difficult for the Governor as he heads into the roiling waters of auto insurance reform, budget cuts, and tax increases.” 

The survey of 801 randomly selected adults throughout New Jersey who participate in their household’s financial decisions was conducted from January 9th through January 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% The project was underwritten by Gateway Creative Group, Inc., based in Randolph, NJ and by TMR, Inc., based in Parsippany, NJ.

 

Poll Analysis Contacts:
James Almeida, survey analyst: 732-925-2271

Peter Woolley, director: 973-670-3239 or voice mail at 973-443-8725.

 

Copyright © 2003, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 030124]