Tables
Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track? |
||||||
September 29 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
35% |
11 |
19 |
73 |
41 |
31 |
Wrong track |
52% |
79 |
56 |
17 |
50 |
54 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
13% |
10 |
26 |
10 |
9 |
16 |
July ‘04 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
36% |
14 |
31 |
64 |
40 |
34 |
Wrong track |
51% |
77 |
49 |
23 |
49 |
53 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
12% |
9 |
20 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
April ’04 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
38% |
13 |
35 |
65 |
43 |
33 |
Wrong track |
48% |
73 |
52 |
21 |
46 |
50 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
14% |
14 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
17 |
January ‘04 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
47% |
25 |
47 |
75 |
54 |
41 |
Wrong track |
38% |
56 |
37 |
16 |
33 |
42 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
15% |
19 |
16 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
Sept ‘03 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
36% |
20 |
30 |
61 |
43 |
31 |
Wrong track |
52% |
72 |
52 |
25 |
45 |
58 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
12% |
9 |
18 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
Last April ‘03 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Right direction |
55% |
35 |
51 |
77 |
60 |
50 |
Wrong track |
32% |
49 |
34 |
14 |
30 |
34 |
Don’t know/Unsure |
13% |
17 |
15 |
9 |
10 |
17 |
Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor? |
||||||
September 29 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
16% |
2 |
9 |
35 |
17 |
15 |
Good |
29% |
13 |
29 |
49 |
30 |
28 |
Only fair |
24% |
33 |
30 |
10 |
21 |
26 |
Poor |
30% |
51 |
26 |
5 |
31 |
29 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
2% |
2 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
July ‘04 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
16% |
2 |
9 |
34 |
19 |
13 |
Good |
26% |
11 |
21 |
43 |
25 |
27 |
Only fair |
27% |
33 |
39 |
18 |
26 |
28 |
Poor |
29% |
52 |
24 |
4 |
27 |
30 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
2% |
1 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
April ‘04 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
15% |
1 |
10 |
31 |
19 |
12 |
Good |
28% |
11 |
27 |
44 |
27 |
28 |
Only fair |
27% |
35 |
36 |
17 |
26 |
29 |
Poor |
29% |
50 |
25 |
7 |
28 |
30 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
1% |
1 |
2 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
January ‘04 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
17% |
4 |
11 |
36 |
23 |
12 |
Good |
34% |
17 |
44 |
53 |
33 |
36 |
Only fair |
28% |
45 |
29 |
7 |
24 |
32 |
Poor |
19% |
33 |
13 |
4 |
19 |
19 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
2% |
2 |
4 |
-- |
2 |
2 |
Sept ‘03 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
16% |
3 |
7 |
36 |
22 |
11 |
Good |
28% |
18 |
35 |
40 |
29 |
28 |
Only fair |
29% |
36 |
41 |
17 |
24 |
33 |
Poor |
26% |
43 |
16 |
6 |
24 |
27 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
1% |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
Last April ‘03 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
28% |
6 |
23 |
52 |
32 |
24 |
Good |
34% |
32 |
36 |
37 |
33 |
35 |
Only fair |
21% |
33 |
21 |
9 |
20 |
23 |
Poor |
16% |
28 |
15 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
1% |
1 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing handling the economy—excellent, good, only fair, or poor? |
||||||
September 29 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
9% |
-- |
1 |
23 |
10 |
8 |
Good |
27% |
11 |
26 |
46 |
26 |
27 |
Only fair |
27% |
30 |
29 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
Poor |
37% |
59 |
39 |
7 |
37 |
36 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
1% |
-- |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing handling foreign affairs and national security—excellent, good, only fair, or poor? |
||||||
September 29 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
19% |
2 |
13 |
44 |
21 |
18 |
Good |
23% |
14 |
18 |
37 |
25 |
22 |
Only fair |
19% |
23 |
29 |
11 |
16 |
22 |
Poor |
37% |
59 |
34 |
8 |
36 |
37 |
Don’t know/Unsure (vol) |
2% |
2 |
6 |
-- |
2 |
2 |
Question: Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ? If “unsure,”or “don’t know”ask “which way do you lean?” |
||||||
September 29 Base= 489 likely voters |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
George Bush, the Republican Candidate |
41 |
11 |
35 |
85 |
45 |
38 |
lean Bush |
3 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
1 |
4 |
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate |
43 |
76 |
35 |
5 |
43 |
43 |
lean Kerry |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Nader or Other (vol.) |
2 |
-- |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
10 |
7 |
25 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
July ’04/Base=834 reg. voters |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
George Bush, the Republican Candidate |
41% |
9 |
30 |
81 |
46 |
36 |
lean Bush |
2% |
0 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate |
42% |
77 |
32 |
6 |
38 |
44 |
lean Kerry |
3% |
5 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
Nader or Other (vol.) |
2% |
2 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
10% |
8 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
April ’04/Base=405 reg.voters |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Men |
Women |
George Bush, the Republican Candidate |
40% |
10 |
26 |
78 |
47 |
35 |
lean Bush |
7% |
2 |
20 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate |
41% |
75 |
31 |
9 |
40 |
42 |
lean Kerry |
7% |
8 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
10 |
Other/Don’t know (vol) |
4% |
5 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
Question: Are you satisfied with choice of candidates you have for President in this election or do you wish there were different candidates? |
||||
|
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
Satisfied |
41% |
39 |
21 |
52 |
Wish for different choices |
54% |
59 |
68 |
42 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
5% |
3 |
11 |
6 |
Question: In deciding their vote for president, people focus on different things. Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…? |
On that issue, _____, which candidate would do a better job? |
||||||||
[ROTATE] |
All |
Dem |
Ind |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Bush |
Kerry |
N= |
The state of the economy |
21% |
23 |
23 |
18 |
27 |
16 |
31% |
50% |
101 |
national security and the war on terror |
42% |
28 |
37 |
61 |
42 |
42 |
66% |
21% |
204 |
quality of the environment |
3% |
5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
9% |
91% |
13 |
providing health care insurance |
11% |
15 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
12 |
17% |
62% |
54 |
improving education |
5% |
5 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
24% |
59% |
22 |
Other (vol) |
2% |
4 |
- |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
||
None (vol.) |
1% |
-- |
-- |
1 |
1 |
-- |
|||
All (vol.) |
17% |
20 |
23 |
9 |
11 |
21 |
|||
Don’t know (vol.) |
--% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
Question: Now, in deciding their vote for president, people also focus on different qualities in a candidate. Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…? |
And which candidate is better described by that quality…? |
||||||||
[ROTATE] |
All |
Dem |
Ind |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Bush |
Kerry |
N= |
Being a strong leader |
31% |
24 |
23 |
44 |
29 |
32 |
67% |
20% |
150 |
Understanding the concerns of the average person |
22% |
31 |
19 |
11 |
26 |
19 |
16% |
71% |
108 |
Honest and trustworthy |
33% |
32 |
41 |
34 |
33 |
33 |
39% |
41% |
162 |
Other (vol) |
1% |
2 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
1 |
|
||
None (vol.) |
1% |
1 |
1 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
|||
All (vol.) |
11% |
10 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
|||
Don’t know (vol.) |
1% |
1 |
3 |
-- |
1 |
1 |
Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…? |
|||||||||
|
All |
Dem |
Ind |
Rep |
|
July ‘04 |
April ‘04 |
Jan ‘04 |
Sept ‘03 |
Very well |
9 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
|
17 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
Fairly well |
31 |
12 |
26 |
56 |
|
42 |
38 |
48 |
40 |
Not too well |
31 |
38 |
33 |
20 |
|
25 |
27 |
19 |
25 |
Not at all well |
26 |
42 |
25 |
7 |
|
13 |
12 |
8 |
10 |
Unsure |
4 |
4 |
11 |
1 |
|
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
Question: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake? |
||||||
|
Party |
Gender |
||||
September 29 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
42% |
17 |
32 |
77 |
45 |
40 |
Mistake |
51% |
77 |
61 |
17 |
48 |
54 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
7% |
7 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
July ‘04 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
44% |
19 |
40 |
74 |
48 |
41 |
Mistake |
48% |
74 |
46 |
20 |
45 |
50 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
8% |
7 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
April ‘04 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
47% |
22 |
42 |
75 |
54 |
42 |
Mistake |
43% |
69 |
48 |
16 |
39 |
47 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
10% |
9 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
12 |
Jan. ‘04 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
55% |
35 |
57 |
82 |
58 |
52 |
Mistake |
37% |
57 |
33 |
12 |
35 |
38 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
8% |
8 |
10 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
Sept ‘03 |
All |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
54% |
34 |
52 |
80 |
62 |
47 |
Mistake |
40% |
59 |
40 |
15 |
33 |
45 |
Don’t know (vol.) |
6% |
7 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
Last April ‘03 |
All |
Dem |
Ind. |
Rep |
Men |
Women |
Right thing |
67% |
49 |
66 |
86 |
73 |
62 |
Mistake |
23% |
40 |
26 |
6 |
20 |
27 |
Don’t Know (vol.) |
10% |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for President in November…or …? |
||||
[ROTATE] |
All |
Dem |
Ind |
Rep. |
John Kerry |
22% |
34 |
18 |
8 |
George Bush |
66% |
49 |
60 |
88 |
Don’t Know/Too close to call [don’t read] |
13% |
16 |
22 |
4 |
Question: Regardless of who you think will win the national election, which candidate do you think will get the most votes in New Jersey? |
||||
[ROTATE] |
All |
Dem |
Ind |
Rep. |
John Kerry |
60% |
76 |
45 |
47 |
George Bush |
24% |
13 |
33 |
33 |
Don’t Know/Too close to call [don’t read] |
16% |
11 |
22 |
20 |
Contacts:
Rick Thigpen, academic associate, 609-394-0888.
Steve Salmore, research professor of political science: 973-292-3633.
Peter Woolley, coordinator: 973-443-8725
Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.
For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.
see also:
Survey
Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Survey Details