Response by Stephen Salmore

John Kerry now leads George Bush in New Jersey based largely on his strong performance in the first presidential debate. His biggest gains were among independent voters and women. Apparently he was able to answer some of the doubts these voters had about his ability to deal with issues of terrorism and national security.  However, these numbers do not reflect the vice-presidential debate, nor the two upcoming presidential debates. The race remains close enough in the Garden State for George Bush to re-capture the lead. A strong performance by the President, and an apparently strong performance by Dick Cheney, can still keep New Jersey in its unexpected role as a swing state.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.