Budget Magic:
NJ Voters have Strong Preferences, Great Skepticism, and Little Information

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Tabular Results
Survey Details

New Jersey clearly has some fiscal problems, though not all voters agree on how serious they are, what to do about them, or who to blame. Governor McGreevey estimates a $2.9-billion budget shortfall for the present fiscal year and a $6-billion deficit for the next fiscal year. But only 42% of New Jersey's registered voters believe Governor McGreevey about the size of the deficit, while 39% believe the deficit is smaller than he claims.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 746 registered voters was conducted from May 15 to May 20 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Voters are most likely to blame Republicans for the state's budget shortfall. When asked who is responsible for the budget deficit, 35% blame former Governor Whitman, 4% former acting governor DiFrancesco, and 7% Republicans in the state legislature. About a third attribute the budget problems to recent events - 25% say a weak economy and 9% cite the events of September 11. A majority of Democrats (55%) and Independents (53%) blame Republicans for the budget shortfalls, but a plurality of Republicans (44%) blame recent events.

Many New Jerseyans are not paying close attention to the current budget debate. Only 18% of voters say they've read or heard a great deal or quite a bit about Governor McGreevey's budget proposal; by contrast, a majority (54%) say they've read or heard little, not much, or nothing about the Governor's plan. Men claim to know more than women, and reported awareness increases with education and likelihood of voting.

New Jerseyans are divided on how the government should solve the current fiscal problems. A plurality (45%) say the state should close the projected gap between its revenues and expenditures not by raising taxes and fees, but by providing fewer government programs and services. By contrast, 40% of New Jersey voters prefer a budget that improves state services and programs while increasing some taxes and fees.

New Jersey voters are hostile to higher taxes and fees. By a margin of 81% to 14%, voters think that doubling auto registration and inspection fees is a bad idea. Nearly as many (73%) voters object to increasing the state gasoline tax-despite the fact New Jersey's gas tax is significantly lower than the national average. Fewer voters (43%) object to generating more revenue from state business taxes, though even this proposal was viewed as a good idea by only 36% of respondents.

New Jersey voters also oppose several other proposals to increase state revenues. They overwhelmingly object to borrowing from the state's unemployment and teachers' health and insurance trust funds to balance the budget. By smaller margins (54%-30%), voters also believe it's a bad idea to borrow money against future revenues expected from the state's participation in a lawsuit against the tobacco industry.

So how do New Jerseyans think the government should close the budget gap? While they claim to favor cutting government programs and services, voters balk when presented with actual program areas to cut: 72% of voters think it's a bad idea to freeze state funding to higher education, 78% object to freezing state aid to school districts, and 55% oppose freezing state aid to municipalities.

Voters are more likely to favor budget savings through state workforce reductions and narrowly targeted tax increases. The government itself is a popular target for cuts: 63% say that reducing the state workforce through attrition and early retirement incentives is a good idea. Likewise, narrowly targeted tax increases are especially attractive to voters: 74% favor raising cigarette taxes by 50 cents per pack, 65% like the idea of eliminating the property tax rebate for families earning more than $200,000 per year, and 67% support imposing sales taxes on the complimentary rooms and meals that Atlantic City casinos offer their "high rollers."

While political elites often frame budget debates as choices between program cuts and tax increases, most New Jersey voters don't see it that way. By 73% to 18%, voters believe that the budget can be balanced without raising taxes or cutting state programs if the state was more efficiently run. This opinion holds across party lines as well as most demographic groups.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727