Carper holds big lead despite Iraq problems

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Democratic incumbent Tom Carper looks to be running away with the Delaware Senate race, but his early support for the war in Iraq still nags. According to the latest results from Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll, 63% of voters say that if the election were held today, they would cast their ballots for Carper, while only 23% support his Republican opponent, Jan Ting. However, in an election in which Democrats hope to capitalize on perceived Republican weakness due to declining support for President George W. Bush and the conflict in Iraq, national issues seem to be hurting Carper somewhat among the highly polarized Delaware electorate.

Carper's advantage in the race goes beyond his forty point lead in voter support. The incumbent's name recognition is at 90%, while only 42% of probable voters recognize Ting. Carper's support also seems to extend across the political spectrum, with 53% of Republicans and 55% of self-identified conservatives holding a favorable view of the incumbent. In contrast, only about half (52%) of Republicans say they have even heard of Ting. Of those, less than half (46%) hold a favorable view of Ting while just less than half (46%) say they have no impression at all.

“Voters don't dislike Ting: they just don't know much about him, and this close to the election, there simply isn't much time to change that,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst. “More than half of voters don't know who he is.  And in fact most voters in his own party don't' know him or don't know enough about him to have an opinion one way or the other. As a result, this election is about Tom Carper, and voters seem happy to keep him.”

The survey reveals some dissatisfaction among Delaware voters with Carper over the war in Iraq. While Carper's overall approval rating is high, a portion of the study designed to test the effect of Iraq and other national issues on the Senate race shows that 64% of respondents who were thinking about Iraq and other national issues had a favorable opinion of Carper, compared with 72% of those voters who were not primed to think about national issues. While reminding voters of the situation in Iraq does not appear to significantly hurt Carper, it does seem to aid his opponent in at least one respect: Voters who first answered a battery of questions about national issues were more inclined to describe Ting as honest and trustworthy than voters not reminded of national issues before they were asked about the Senate race.  While voters overall thought that Carper was more honest and trustworthy by a 5 to 1 margin, those respondents reminded of the war in Iraq gave Carper an edge of a little more than 3 to 1.

Carper's problems with national issues may have their source in the deep partisan divisions in Delaware revealed by the PublicMind survey. In the First State, President Bush's approval numbers are low despite recent national polls showing a surge in his approval. Overall, 36% of registered voters in Delaware approve of Bush's job performance, and 61% disapprove. Only 25% say the country is headed in the right direction.

Regarding the war in Iraq, only 11% of Delaware voters say the U.S. military effort is going “very well,” while 29% say it is going “not well at all.” Overall, 57% of respondents say that the war in Iraq was a mistake, and only 38% say that it was the right thing to do. However, Delaware Republicans' support for the war remains strong, with 70% of Republicans saying it was the right thing to do, compared to only 15% of Democrats. Similarly, 82% of Democrats say it was a mistake, compared to just 25% of Republicans.

“Carper has tried to hold a moderate position on Iraq. He voted for the resolution, but has been backing away from it recently. Given the polarization of the Delaware electorate, though, there doesn't seem to be a noncontroversial position for him to take,” said Cassino. “However, there's no way for Ting to capitalize on this, as he's also been stressing relatively moderate positions.”

Moreover, Delaware voters give Carper the edge in other areas. When asked which candidate better understands the concerns of the average Delaware resident, 44% of respondents choose Carper, while only 11% favor Ting. Carper's advantage is even greater when voters are asked which candidate has the background and experience necessary to be a senator, with only 8% choosing Ting, compared to 58% for Carper, a 7 to 1 advantage.

The PublicMind poll of 651 registered voters statewide was conducted from September 14 through 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Contacts:

Contacts: Peter Woolley 973.670.3239; Dan Cassino 973.896.7072

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.