Castle has commanding lead in House race

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Incumbent Republican Mike Castle holds a commanding lead in the race for Delaware's lone seat in the House of Representatives. According to a new survey of First State voters carried out by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind, Castle has the support of 61% of probable voters, against Democratic challenger Dennis Spivak's 22%. Moreover, Spivak is having to fight for the support of other Democrats in his race against the 13-year incumbent and has been unable to capitalize on the national issues that the Democratic Party has been hoping would give it the edge in this November's midterm election.

Among members of his own party, Spivak is in a statistical dead heat with Castle, with Castle leading 44 to 42. In all other groups, including voters who say that they lean towards the Democratic Party, Castle holds a lead of 20 points or greater. While one in four self-described independent voters in Delaware are still unsure about how they will cast their ballots, independent voters who have made up their minds favor Castle by a decisive 3 to 1 margin.

“Any candidate's first job is to shore up support among his or her base. If Castle continues to make inroads among Democrats, much less independents, Spivak doesn't stand a chance,” said Dan Cassino, survey analyst and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Spivak's campaign has been unable so far to capitalize on national issues that have aided Democratic candidates in other races. A section of the poll designed to test the impact of the war in Iraq and other national issues on the race showed that these issues had no impact on either candidate's support.

“In neighboring states, we've seen that the mere mention of Iraq can cost a Republican candidate 8, even 10 points,” said Cassino. “The fact that the war in Iraq isn't helping Spivak shows how little traction he's been able to gain against a popular, entrenched candidate.”

Both incumbents for federal office from Delaware seem to hold insurmountable leads with only about 40 days until Election Day. A PublicMind poll of the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Tom Carper and Republican challenger Jan Ting released last week showed Carper holding a 40 point lead. In a typical election, most people vote entirely for one party or the other. However, Delaware voters are just as likely to vote for the incumbents—who in this case come from opposing parties—as they are to vote for only Republicans or only Democrats for the two federal offices.

“In Delaware, it seems, voters are going for the candidate they know. Compared to brand name and incumbency, party affiliation just isn't that important,” said Cassino.

The PublicMind poll of 651 registered voters was conducted from September 14 through September 19 and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

 

Contacts:

Contacts: Peter Woolley 973.670.3239; Dan Cassino 973.896.7072

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

Copyright © 2006, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 060925]