FDU PublicMind - October 18, 2002 Release

Looking for a Few Good Issues

October 18, 2002

Likely New Jersey voters approve of U.S. military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power by a margin of 58% to 30% according to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll.

Nearly half the voters who approve of US military action say they will vote for the Republican Forrester, while 36% of those who approve say they will vote for Democrat Lautenberg. The remainder are undecided for whom they will vote. "This might be a wedge for the Forrester campaign," said Bruce Larson, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and a survey analyst for the PublicMind, "but it is a relatively weak wedge. Lautenberg is getting the support of a significant number of voters who approve of U.S. military action in Iraq."

Lautenberg, the former 3-term Senator, is not suffering from resentment over the NJ State Supreme Court's decision to allow him to replace Bob Torricelli on the ballot. Four of five likely voters say they have heard some or even a great deal about the court case. Voters are split 47%-47% over whether the Democratic Party should have switched candidates so close to the election, and by a margin of 46% to 44% they say the decision was unfair to Republicans. Nonetheless, they approve of the NJ Supreme Court's decision to allow it by a margin of 56% to 38%.

Nor do likely voters think the new Democratic nominee is too old to be effective. Half of likely voters pegged the age of Frank Lautenberg between 75 and 79. And 71% say that he "can still be effective at that age."

Lautenberg does not seem to have suffered any ill effects from his selection as a nominee by party leaders rather than by voters in a primary election. A 58% majority think he will be responsive to voters, while only 27% think he will be beholden to party leaders. Half of likely voters also think that he will serve out the full 6 year Senate term while 35% think, if elected, he will resign to allow the Governor to appoint a replacement. "The notion that voters would recoil at the idea of party shenanigans and stay away from the new Democratic candidate has not come to pass" said Professor Larson.

On the issue of abortion, 61% of respondents describe themselves as pro-choice voters while 27% describe themselves as pro-life. A majority (53%) of pro-choice voters have made up their minds for the Democratic candidate, and a similar majority (52%) of pro-life voters have made up their mind for the Republican candidate.

The survey of 590 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from October 10 to 15 and has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727