Response by Stephen Salmore

The principal advantage incumbents enjoy when they seek re-election is high familiarity with the voters. A number of years in office have given Corzine the opportunity to be reported on, meet and work with local groups, and take credit for legislation that he voted for. So, in this year's race between sitting Senator Jon Corzine and businessman Doug Forrester, what is surprising is that Corzine's advantage in name recognition has dissipated over the last six months -- with three months of campaigning still to come.

Doug Forrester only once before had the advantage of building his name recognition for statewide office and that was three years ago. This year, Forrester's early advertising has gone far to level the playing field.  With Corzine's advantage in name recognition gone, he can now turn to the support of the Democratic organizations he has so assiduously cultivated. But in recent years neither the Republican nor Democratic organizations have been particularly effective in winning campaigns for their candidates. Corzine is then left with money as his major advantage.

Whether his money can buy an effective enough campaign remains to be seen. Five years ago his $63 million only bought him a thin victory. Maybe this year it won't be enough.

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.