Background Memo  

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from July 12 to July 19 using a randomly selected sample of 600 registered, likely voters statewide aged 18 and over.  The sampling error for 800 adults is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ.  Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: Now, turning to New Jersey… In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or do you think the state has gotten off on the wrong track?

Question:  Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven't just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

• Doug Forrester
• Jon Corzine
• Frank Lautenberg
• Richard Codey

Question: How would you rate the job Richard Codey is doing as governor—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Question: Later this year there will be an election for governor of New Jersey. Do you happen to know who is the … candidate for governor?

Question:  If the election for Governor of New Jersey were held right now, and you had to hake a choice, which of the following …or …  would you vote for?

• Jon Corzine, the Democratic candidate
• Doug Forrester, the Republican candidate

Question: [If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean…?

• Jon Corzine, the Democrat
• Doug Forrester, the Republican

Question:  Now what if the candidates were different. If Richard Codey was the Democratic candidate and Doug Forrester was the Republican candidate, and you had to make a choice, who would you vote for….?

• the Democratic candidate
• the Republican candidate

Question:  And what if Jim McGreevey, the former governor, was the Democratic candidate and Doug Forrester was the Republican candidate, and you had to make a choice, who would you vote for….?

• the Democratic candidate
• the Republican candidate

Question:  Are you satisfied with the choice of candidates you have for governor in this election or do you wish there were different candidates?

• satisfied
• wish there were different candidates

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for governor in November… or …?

• Jon Corzine
• Doug Forrester

Question: Do you expect it to be close or not very close?

• close
• not very close

Question: Do you consider John Corzine to be liberal or conservative?

• liberal
• conservative

Question: Do you consider Doug Forrester to be liberal or conservative?

• liberal
• conservative

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Tabular Results