Response by Stephen Salmore

With the issues of terrorism and Presidential leadership dominating the campaign, early polls had given New Jersey Republicans hope to believe that the Garden State would be “in play” and thus likely to attract national campaign attention and money.  Such a campaign effort might even move New Jersey into the “swing state” category.  These latest poll numbers put a damper on these hopes for they indicate that the state will almost certainly go Democratic, although by a lower margin than double digits four years ago.  New Jersey’s proximity to ground zero has created a more favorable issue environment thus Bush is running better now than in 2000, especially with married and older women.  However, his personal style of leadership has been a two edged sword.  It certainly has energized most Republicans, but It has also has alienated many moderate Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  The net result is that Bush is under-performing among Republicans, off-setting some of the gains he has made with women and other demographic groups.  A Bush win in New Jersey is not out of the question if he surges over the final days of the campaign, but a less than double digit loss is more likely.  Closer, but no cigar.

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.