Voters Expect Property Taxes to Increase:
Governor and Budget Get Mixed Reviews

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Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response

Four of five voters say the state should hold the line on spending rather than borrow money to close the deficit in the proposed budget, according to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind. Voters of both parties and across ideologies agree it's better to hold back spending than to borrow the money. Moreover, a slim majority say borrowing is a bad idea even if the money is paid back with a higher cigarette tax and new surcharges on unsafe driving.

The poll also shows that a majority of voters do not think any taxes should be raised, though one in three say it's acceptable to raise taxes on some things so long as the income tax and sales tax are not increased. As in the past, voters are less concerned about tax increases that affect other citizens than they are about tax proposals that will touch them. Two in three think a higher tax rate for those who make more than $500,000 a year is a good idea; similar numbers support a 1% tax on new houses selling for more than $1 million. But other proposals don't get an easy pass. Two-thirds say increasing the transfer tax on houses sold for over $150,000 is a bad idea. Likewise, 61% think a monthly fee on cell phones is not good.

Most voters--including most Republicans--do not hold Governor McGreevey responsible for the anticipated budget deficit. Only 16% blame the governor. A quarter blame poor economic performance, and 21% blame former Governor Christie Whitman.

"The good news for Governor McGreevey is that even three years into his administration voters do not hold him responsible for chronic budget problems," said Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the PublicMind. "The bad news for the governor is that voters don't give him credit for much either."

The governor's ratings continue to stagnate. Those giving him a rating of excellent or good stand at 31% compared to 29% just before his state-of-the-state address in January. Only 29% say he should be re-elected while a majority (57%) continues to say they would rather have a new person in the job. These opinions are very similar to a year ago at this time.

But neither does the legislature get a good rating. Only one in four voters rate the legislature's performance as excellent or good, whereas 62% rate its performance as only fair or poor. Democrats as well as Republicans and independents agree the legislature's performance is "only fair" (50%) or "poor" (13%).

Three quarters of voters expect their property taxes to increase next year; a third think their property taxes will increase a lot. Such expectations cut across party lines. But voters don't perceive the governor as responsible for the level of property taxes. More than a third of voters point to the local schools as most responsible for property taxes, and another 22% finger their local government. They also think that increasing state aid to towns and schools, as the governor has proposed, is more likely to be used to increase services than to hold down property taxes.

As has been the case even in more difficult budget years, a majority of New Jerseyans are not paying close attention to the budget proposals put on the table each spring. Two-thirds (68%) say they've heard or read only a little or nothing at all about the governor's proposed state budget for the coming year. Voters are divided over whether the state is moving in the right direction or has gotten off on the wrong track: while a majority of Democrats say it is headed in the right direction, a majority of Republicans say it's on the wrong track. In the end, voters are unsure whether the budget is good or bad for New Jersey. A quarter say it's good, a third say it's bad, and the rest are just not sure.

Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll of 802 registered voters was conducted from April 3 through April 10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.443.8727

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

Copyright © 2004, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 040415]