Governor McGreevey's problems are related to the general problem of Democrats in New Jersey. Democrats are identified as the party that raises taxes. The fact that relatively few people are aware of the current budget debate only means that voters are falling back on their basic assumptions about the parties. People do not really pay attention to the governor's race until the election is at hand, and that makes it less likely that voters will change their opinions before then.

While it's good news for the governor that voters don't blame him for the state budget or for local property taxes, it's still going to be his name on the ballot a year from now, and he will bear the brunt of anti-tax feeling. That means he has to overcome the suspicion that it's the Democrats that raise taxes. Even though the poll shows that two-thirds of voters are in favor are of raising taxes on millionaires, its still a tax that Democrats are raising, thus reinforcing the assumption many voters have that Democrats are the party that raise taxes.

The governor's re-elect numbers are so weak that it suggests that it's the Republicans who can win or lose the race. It's up the Republicans to pick a credible candidate who can win. The Governor must count on a weak opponent in order to win. That leaves the governor's chances of winning in Republican hands.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details