Elections in Iraq Don’t Help President in Garden State

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Despite their increased optimism about the situation in Iraq, New Jersey voters have a more pessimistic view of the country’s direction.  According to the most recent results from the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, only 30% say the country is headed in the right direction, down from 36% just before the President’s inauguration to a second term.  A majority of 55% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, up from 50% three months ago.

A majority (53%) of New Jersey voters now say the US military effort in Iraq is going fairly well or very well.  That is improved from just 43% in January, and up from 41% in October, just before the Presidential Election.  Yet, President Bush’s ratings have suffered a little in New Jersey as they have in national polls.

Rating the President’s performance as “excellent” or “good” are 38% of Garden Staters now as opposed to 43% in January. A majority of 59% rate his performance as “only fair” or “poor”, up from 56% in January.

“As matters improve in Iraq, the President will not necessarily get the benefit,” said Peter Woolley, Executive Director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. ”In fact, as things improve in Iraq, people are likely to turn their attention to domestic debates such as social security and to other foreign policy problems.”

Not since last July have a majority of voters said the US military effort in Iraq is going fairly well or very well. At the same time 48% say the US effort in Iraq is going “not too well” or “not well at all,” an improvement from 57% at the start of the year. A majority (55%) continue to say going to war with Iraq was a mistake.

“As the President moves through his second term, Iraq may well be an issue that can hurt more than help him,” added Woolley. “Voters in the state would almost certainly blame the President harshly for failure in Iraq. Success in Iraq, on the other hand, would likely have the effect of getting voters to focus on other issues, as headlines about war are replaced by headlines about social security and other policy concerns.

The PublicMind poll of 800 registered voters statewide was conducted from April 4 to April 10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.


Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.769.1401

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

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Copyright © 2005, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 050412]