FDU PublicMind - October 5, 2003 Release

Governor’s Unpopularity Could Hurt Democrats

By one measure, Democratic state legislative candidates are in good shape heading into the 2003 New Jersey state midterm elections. According to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, 42% of voters say they will vote for Democratic candidates for the state assembly and state senate, whereas 30% say they will vote for Republican candidates.

But other factors don’t bode well for the Democrats. For one, the continuing unpopularity of Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey poses problems for Democratic legislative candidates. Only 29% of the state’s voters believe McGreevey is doing a good or excellent job as governor, whereas 69% percent believe he is doing a fair or poor job. And half of New Jersey’s voters said they would be less likely to vote for a state legislative candidate who is a strong supporter of McGreevey, whereas only 25% said that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who strongly supports the Governor. “Most Democratic candidates probably won’t be inviting the Governor to join them on the campaign trail,” suggested Bruce Larson, a professor of political science and survey analyst at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

The perception among many voters that things in New Jersey aren’t going well could also hurt Democrats, who control much of the state government. According to the PublicMind poll, only 33% of New Jersey voters believe the state is moving in the right direction, whereas a slim majority of voters (52%) think the state is on the wrong track.

“Democrats control the governorship and the state assembly, and they share control of the state senate with Republicans,” added Larson. “If voters link Democratic control with the problems they perceive in the state, some Democrats in marginal districts could be in trouble.”

“But without a strong reminder from Republicans,” said Larson, “voters may not have the political awareness to make that link.” Indeed, most voters (71%) know that Governor Jim McGreevey is a Democrat, but 41% percent said they don’t know which party controls the state assembly, and another 25% think Republicans control the Assembly.

Issues will also play a role in determining the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. By and large, voters think Democrats do a better job than Republicans in dealing with the environment, suburban sprawl, and auto insurance, while voters have more confidence in the GOP’s ability to uphold ethical standards and provide security from terrorist attacks. But on the two issues regarded as most pressing by the most voters—controlling spending and taxes—voters believe Republicans do a better job than Democrats.

As for Governor McGreevey, he might have difficulty winning a second term if he were running this year. According to the PublicMind poll, 61% of New Jersey voters believe the Governor should be replaced with a new person, while only 27% think he deserves reelection. Yet McGreevey, who is not up for re-election until 2005, has ample time to turn around his political fortunes. While New Jersey has a procedure for recalling the governor, the process is exceedingly difficult and highly unlikely. And even though 73% of New Jersey voters have heard something about the California recall initiative, only a small minority of (25%) favor making New Jersey’s recall process any easier.

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll of 810 registered voters was conducted from September 24 through September 30 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.443.8727

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.