The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from Jan. 14 through Jan. 20 using a randomly selected sample of 797 likely primary voters including 421 Democrats and 256 Republicans.
The sampling error for 797 is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Sample error for subgroups varies with the size of the subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land-line phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Results are mathematically weighted to match known demographics.
“Likely primary voters” are largely self-defined through a series of screening questions. Any voter turnout model for New Jersey’s new February Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, against which a sample might evaluated, is largely speculative since there is no reliable historical pattern to which to refer.
Question US1: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?
Question US2: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Question US3: Now, turning to Iraq… How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?
Question: And in the upcoming elections for President of the United States, which candidate are you most likely to support?
Question: If you had to choose, which do you like more (about the candidate of his/her choice)…[NOTE: TOP 3 CANDIDATES ONLY]
Question: And which of those same candidates are you least likely to support in the general election?
Question US4: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?
Question: If you had to choose, which do you dislike more (about the candidate of his/her choice)…