New Jersey Consumer Intentions -- FDU PublicMind

2007 Report on New Jersey Consumer Intentions

According to the most recent annual New Jersey consumer poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's Silberman College of Business, 42% of adults have bullish opinions of their financial future and expect to be better off financially a year from now, while 49% say they expect to be no better off next year or even worse off. In fact, one of four (27%) adults who participate in their households' financial decisions say they are likely to experience a deterioration in their finances over the next 12 months.

As for business conditions in general, just one in three New Jerseyans (37%) are bullish, down from 43% last year, while nearly half 47% say business conditions will be the same or worse in the coming year. Another 16% are uncertain.

“The past twelve months were an uncertain period for the New Jersey consumer,” according to James Almeida, Associate Dean of the Silberman College of Business, “and these results reflect an equal uncertainly about the coming year.” Even while two of three adults (64%) report their own financial condition improved or stayed the same over the past year, only one in four (24%) thinks business conditions in the state improved in the past year, while a majority (60%) say business conditions in the state are the same (19%) or worse (41%).

“The economic and political events they have weathered over the past year have dampened consumers' confidence compared to years past,” said Almeida. Two out of three respondents who say they'll be worse off financially next year also say that the state is “moving in the wrong direction” and most respondents who say they'll be better off financially next year agree that the state is “moving in the wrong direction.”

Among other findings of the study,

Mid-life Financial Crisis? Middle aged New Jersey residents appear to be having a hard time. Forty-four percent aged 45-59 report they are worse off financially than they were a year ago. In other age groups fewer than one in three respondents report they are worse off than a year ago.

A soft real estate market? As recently as 2005, 81% thought housing prices in their neighbor hood would continue to climb. That number is down to 46%. In 2005, just 10% thought housing prices would go down in their neighborhood. That number is up to 38%.

Watch that plastic! Although last year only 6% of respondents expected the unpaid balances on their credit cards to increase, one in four (24%) increased it anyway. They promise to be more disciplined this year, with only 6% saying they will increase the amount they owe on credit cards. Nevertheless, one in four respondents (25%) expresses at least some difficulty in paying his or her outstanding credit balance.

It's hard to get away! Last year, two in three consumers (66%) said they were going take a vacation of a week or more, yet only three in five (59%) actually did. This year, 68% residents expect to take a week long vacation. .

Raising cash? Only 6 percent of respondents expected to refinance their home last year, but one in seven did so. Only 7% expect to re-finance this coming year.

The Commuter State: 29% of respondents purchased or leased a new car last year although only one in six (16%) expected to do so. This year, one in five (19%) expects to turn over his or her car in the next twelve months.

If you've got it, save it! One in three respondents purchased stocks outside their pension plan last year, and 38% expect to continue this year.

The annual consumer study by Silberman College also produces two composite indicators of economic activity. This year's composite number of Consumer Intentions (prospective)—what consumers think they will do—is 40, down from 41 a year ago and 45 two years ago. This year's composite number of past performance (retrospective)—what consumers actually did—is 38, three points less than what consumers in 2006 predicted.

The telephone survey of 616 randomly selected adults throughout New Jersey who participate in their household's financial decisions was sponsored by Fairleigh Dickinson University's Silberman College of Business and conducted by PublicMind from January 2 through January 7 and has a margin of error of +/- 4% percentage points.

Contact: James Almeida: 732-754-5461

For more information, please call (973) 443-8661.