No Surprise from Late Deciders

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Survey Details

There is little evidence that undecided voters are breaking for the President in numbers sufficient for him to win the state. Nor is there any indication of a surge that will permit Kerry to carry the state by the same margin that Democrats carried it four years ago. According to the most recent results from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s tracking poll, likely voters who were undecided in October and re-contacted over the final weekend of the campaign were breaking 5 to 4 for Kerry.

Kerry’s advantage among previously undecided voters is nonetheless slight and does not affect the basic findings of the previous poll. PublicMind reported on Friday that Kerry led Bush among likely voters by a margin of 45%-38%. When leaners were included, Kerry led by 47%-40%, with 11% still undecided and 2% scattered among others, including Nader.

While the results suggest that President Bush is not getting the surge he needs in the state, they also indicate that Senator Kerry will not duplicate the 16 point margin that Al Gore had four years ago. “The stronger Republican performance this year is explained by 9/11 and the reemergence of national security issues on the agenda,” said Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for PublicMind. “On issues such as the war on terror, men and women view Bush as the stronger leader, and they do so at nearly equal levels. Meanwhile, the issues on which voters traditionally favor Democrats—the economy, education, and health care—are secondary to national security concerns this year,” added Larson.

In the last weekend of the campaign, PublicMind attempted to re-interview all initially undecided voters from its tracking poll in October.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.769.1401

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

 
Copyright © 2004, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 041101]