Response by Stephen Salmore

Even with most New Jersey voters saying the country is off on the wrong track (due mostly to concerns about the economy), President Bush still leads all Democratic Presidential hopefuls, announced or unannounced. This lead is due more to his personal popularity than his policy decisions. However, with Bush's share of the vote under 50%, and declining job ratings overall on his handling the economy and the war in Iraq, he will have a difficult time winning the additional votes to reach a majority. His personal popularity puts him in the ballgame but will not be enough to win. With the Presidential election still over a year away, the economy and the Iraq situation may yet improve. It is still too early to paint New Jersey red or blue.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.