FDU PublicMind - January 16, 2004 Release

Bush Rebounds Some in Garden State

President Bush's popularity among voters in the Garden State rebounded in the New Year. According to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, half of New Jersey voters rate his job performance as excellent or good.

Garden State voters are also more optimistic about the direction of the country. By a margin of 47% to 38%, voters say the country is moving in the right direction. This compares to only 36% who said the country was moving in the right direction in September while a majority said the country was off on the wrong track.

"The President's approval ratings are likely benefiting from recent good news on the economy and the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq," said Dr. Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and a survey analyst.

In head-to-head trial heats against potential Democratic nominees for the Presidency, George Bush comes out ahead against a broad field. However, in no match up does George Bush get 50%. "With Democrat Al Gore beating Bush handily in New Jersey in the 2000 presidential election, and with the state trending Democratic of late, Bush's numbers may well represent the upper limits of his support in New Jersey," noted FDU political scientist Bruce Larson.

Howard Dean fares better than other candidates against George Bush. He is also the only candidate to get more than 50% of the vote from Democratic voters. However, independent voters are not drawn strongly to any of the Democratic candidates. And, not surprisingly, many voters remain unsure about the field. "The fact that New Jersey's primary occurs so late means that voters here are not exposed to the candidates the way people are in other parts of the country," noted Larson.

Two thirds of voters say the US military effort in Iraq is going very well or fairly well, up from 61% in September. This perception cuts across party lines: 60% of Democrats say the military action in Iraq is going very well or fairly well and 64% of independents agree. A majority of voters continue to say the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq.

"Bush's fortunes here in New Jersey and across the nation will depend heavily on the success of both his foreign and economic policies," added Larson. "As long as significant numbers of US forces are on the ground, peace as well as prosperity will be a key factor in the race." Indeed, while about a third of voters say they are following the economy more closely than events in Iraq, almost a third say they are following the war in Iraq more closely than the economy, and a third say they are following both.

Younger voters,18-29, are more likely than other age groups to single out the war in Iraq as the thing they follow more than the economy; 30-44 year olds are more likely to single out the economy; those 45 and above more often say "both". But it's the economy that most people say drives their consideration for president, a preference that is shared across party lines and gender. Nearly half say a candidate's position on the economy is more important in deciding their vote than the candidate's position on foreign policy. A quarter say the war in Iraq is more important and a quarter say both. "President Bush as well as the Democratic candidates have a long way to go before the election," said Larson. "But as the incumbent with his economic and foreign policy record on the line, the President knows this is his election to lose."

Garden Staters will soon have a chance to compare their presidential preferences to those of voters in Iowa where precinct caucuses will be held this Monday. The PublicMind poll of 600 registered voters was conducted from January 3 through January 11 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.443.8727

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.