Background Memo  

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from January 2 through January 7 using a randomly selected statewide sample of 800 registered voters.  The sampling error for 800 respondents is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) System. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Results are mathematically weighted to match known demographics.

The questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

Question: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

Question: Now, turning to Iraq… How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?

• Very well
• Fairly well
• Not too well
• Not at all well

Question:  Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

• Excellent
• Good
• Only fair
• Poor

Question:  [Ask of Democrats and lean Democrats] Let me ask you quickly about some possible Democratic candidates for President. . If you haven't heard of any one of them, just say so. Have you heard of … [ROTATE LIST]?  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of … [MATCH ROTATION]?

• Hillary Clinton
• Barack Obama
• John Edwards
• Joe Biden
• Bill Richardson
• Chris Dodd
• Dennis Kucinich

Question: Now of all those candidates, which one do you think you'd be most likely to support for the Presidential nomination?

[In a random selection process, 1/2 of Democratic respondents were asked, earlier in the study, to estimate what percent of New Jersey residents are African American; ½ of Democratic respondents were asked what percent of New Jersey residents are women.]

• Hillary Clinton
• Barack Obama
• John Edwards
• Joe Biden
• Bill Richardson
• Chris Dodd
• Dennis Kucinich

Question:  [Ask of Republicans and lean Republicans only] Let me ask you quickly about some possible Republican candidates for President. . If you haven't heard of any one of them, just say so. Have you heard of … [ROTATE LIST]?  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of … [MATCH ROTATION]?

• Rudy Giuliani
• John McCain
• Mitt Romney
• Tommy Thompson
• Sam Brownback
• Jim Gilmore
• Mike Huckabee

Question: Now of all those candidates, which one do you think you'd be most likely to support for the Presidential nomination?

• Rudy Giuliani
• John McCain
• Mitt Romney
• Tommy Thompson
• Sam Brownback
• Jim Gilmore
• Mike Huckabee

see also:
Survey Analysis
Tabular Results

Republican Response
Democratic Response