Trouble for Senator Torricelli

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Every year is an election year in New Jersey, and this November all of New Jersey's 13 U.S. House seats are up for grabs. But the biggest prize is the U.S. Senate seat being defended by first-term Democratic incumbent Bob Torricelli.

Three GOP candidates-former West Windsor Mayor Douglas Forrester and state senators Diane Allen and John Matheussen-are vying to win the June 4th Republican primary to take on Torricelli, who faces no primary opposition. The GOP has not won a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey since 1972.

As the incumbent, Torricelli's fate will rest largely on whether New Jerseyans believe he's done a good enough job to be returned to office. On this measure, Torricelli has cause for concern. Torricelli's favorable ratings outnumber his unfavorable ratings by only 8 percentage points. By contrast, Jon Corzine-New Jersey's other U.S. Senator-enjoys a significantly larger favorable-to-unfavorable ratio than does Torricelli. (See Table 1.)

Most troubling for Torricelli is that 41% of New Jersey voters think he should be replaced with a new person, and only 35% believe he deserves reelection. New Jersey's critical block of independent voters are the cause of Torricelli's problems. A large plurality (42%) of independent voters side with a clear majority of GOP supporters in believing that Torricelli should be replaced. (See Table 2.)

Torricelli's difficulties likely stem from the fact that he spent much of 2001 under federal investigation for alleged campaign finance abuses and ethics violations. Federal prosecutors ultimately dropped the case against him, but the bad publicity he received during the investigation appears to have had lingering negative effects on his candidacy.

"New Jersey Republicans would like nothing better than to oust Torricelli" said Dr. Bruce Larson, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. "But Torricelli's relatively low standing among New Jersey voters doesn't automatically spell defeat," said Larson. "For Republicans to oust Torricelli, they'll need a strong challenger."

Many New Jerseyans have yet to establish an opinion about the three GOP candidates vying for the opportunity to take on Torricelli. Significant majorities of New Jersey voters have never even heard of the GOP candidates campaigning for the June 4th primary. (See Table 3.)

Among the three GOP primary candidates, state Senator Diane Allen polls slightly better against Torricelli than does Douglas Forrester or John Matheussen. (See Table 4.) Still, until voters learn more about the field of Republican candidates, the desire among some New Jerseyans to oust Torricelli will remain an abstract one.

The president's standing can also have an impact on congressional contests, with a popular president able to boost his party's candidates and an unpopular president potentially hindering them. Republican president George W. Bush continues to have relatively healthy job approval ratings. A significant majority (64%) believes that Bush is doing an excellent or good job as president. Even 45% of the state's Democratic voters give Bush an excellent or good rating. (See Table 5.)

At the same time, Bush's job approval ratings are nowhere near the stratospheric levels they were in the months immediately following last year's September 11th terrorists attacks. At least some slippage in the polls was probably inevitable for Bush, as the attacks-and the patriotic fervor they generated-become more distant. Another potential cause of Bush's downward slide may be recent news reports that the administration neglected information it had prior to September 11th about possible terrorist strikes on U.S. targets. How the story plays out could have an impact on New Jersey's midterm congressional elections.

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Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727