Race within the Race

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Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response

Headed into the last weekend of the campaign for New Jersey governor, the electoral dust has not settled.  According to the most recent results from Fairleigh Dickinson University's tracking poll, Democrat Jon Corzine leads by only 43%-41% over Republican Doug Forrester.

Forrester's share of the vote is relatively stable compared to past results of this poll as he maintains support from 41% of the most likely voters. On the other hand, Corzine, who has received 47% to 48% of the vote in a series of PublicMind polls, has a slightly declining share. The number of undecided voters have risen compared to previous polls and now represent 13%. Those reporting they will vote for someone other than Corzine or Forrester are 3%.

Favorable ratings of both candidates continue to decline slowly. The percentage of voters who are unsure or have mixed opinions of the two major candidates continues to increase.  About a third of likely independent voters remain uncommitted to either major candidate.

White voters continue to favor Forrester, but among non-white voters Corzine leads by about a four-to-one advantage. In last year's 2004 Presidential election, exit polls showed Republican George W. Bush won white voters in the Garden State by 8 percentage points, while John Kerry, who won the state, ran up a substantial advantage among non-white voters.

“It's very difficult for a Democrat to lose a statewide race in New Jersey,” said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. “The Democratic candidate would have to prove unacceptable to people who normally lean to the Democratic side of the ballot.”

“Turnout for this kind of election is typically low,” added Woolley. “And turnout in heavily negative elections like this one tends to be low. If Democrats expect to win by a comfortable margin, they need to make certain to get their voters out on Tuesday.”

Male voters continue to favor Forrester (49%-40%), but by a slightly larger margin than in previous surveys. Women voters continue to favor Corzine (46%-35%).  Married women also continue to favor Corzine (45%-40%%), though by a smaller margin than in previous surveys.

The PublicMind poll of 410 likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from October 28 through November 3 and has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. PublicMind continues to conduct interviews through the final weekend of the campaign.


Poll Analysis


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Copyright © 2005, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 051104]