Political Wrap-Up for Poll's Inaugural Year

Aside from national polls on energy, views of the Garden State and the television show The Sopranos, Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind released four polls this election year that accurately predicted the outcome of the McGreevey vs. Schundler contest for governor of New Jersey. The projected margin of the McGreevey victory in these poll releases was 17%, 17%, then 18% and, finally, 16%. Mr. Joseph Calvanelli, president of TMR, Inc., and director of polling for the PublicMind, said, "The PublicMind poll most accurately captured the mood of the electorate in a campaign that never seemed to capture New Jersey's attention."

Fairleigh Dickinson University and its partner, TMR, Inc., conducted the first poll of New Jersey's 2001 campaign season in late April. That poll found that in a hypothetical race between Democrat Jim McGreevey and Republican Bret Schundler - a race that assumed each one would win his party's nomination - McGreevey would coast to victory with a 17-point margin.

In November, the PublicMind also conducted the last poll of New Jersey's 2001 political season, winding up its interviews late Sunday night before the Tuesday election. The poll found a 16-point lead for McGreevey. But it also found a slight trend for Schundler, as well as an increasing disinterest in the race on the part of independents that might depress turnout. McGreevey subsequently coasted to a win in a light turnout with 56.2% against Schundler's 41.9%.

Dr. Bruce Larson, chief survey analyst for the PublicMind, said, "Public opinion is inherently difficult to measure, but our methods proved reliable."

The University's new poll also did well sampling sub-groups of the electorate. For example, voter preferences broken down by gender were remarkably accurate. While some other polls showed on the eve of the election that Schundler would win among men, the PublicMind had McGreevey winning the male vote by 4.1%. And indeed election day exit polls showed that McGreevey did win among men by a margin of 4%.

Indeed, the PublicMind was consistently among the most accurate polls. The final projected margins, as reported by each of the independent polling organizations, can be found at politicsnj.com.

Dr. Peter Woolley, who coordinates the PublicMind's faculty and consultants, said, "This is an immensely talented group of people. I'm looking forward to their next projects - some political, some cultural and some national."

Summary of Final November 5 poll

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, and you had to make a choice, which of the following two candidates would you vote for… ?

	As reported 11/5 - FDU's PublicMind			Election Day Actual (a) and Exit Polls (e) Margin
	McGreevey	Schundler	Projected Margin
All Likely Voters	49.5%	34.3%	15.2% M	14.3% M a
Democrats	88.5%	5.2%	83.3% M	79% M e
Republicans	15.0%	77.8%	62.8% S	66% S e
Independents	42.0%	30.2%	11.8% M	12% M e

M=McGreevey
S=Schundler
Actual results (a) as reported by New Jersey Division of Elections -- November 7^th
Exit polls (e) as reported by Edison Media in November 7^th edition of The Star Ledger

 

	As reported 11/5 - FDU's PublicMind			Election Day Exit Polls "Actual" Margin
	McGreevey	Schundler	Projected Margin
Males	43.5%	39.4%	4.1% M	4% M e
Females	54.3%	30.2%	24.1% M	21% M e

Poll Analysis

Professor Bruce Larson, survey analyst: 973-443-8727.

Rick Thigpen, academic associate, 609-394-0888.

Steve Salmore, research professor of political science: 973-292-3633.

Peter Woolley, coordinator: 973-301-0709.