McGreevey Holds Gaping 18-point Lead: Republicans Divided but Turnout Questionable

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Tabular Results
Survey Details

In the final weekend of the campaign season, Democrat Jim McGreevey leads Republican Bret Schundler by a margin of 53% to 35% while 12% report they are still undecided. McGreevey’s margin is not likely to dissipate as 85% of his supporters assert they are sure of their preference and will not change their mind.

According to the survey's findings, independent candidate Bill Schluter has no measurable effect on the vote for the two major party candidates.

Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind contacted 1157 adults statewide from October 27 through November 1 of whom 600 were likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the race for the Assembly 41% say they’ll vote for the Democrat candidates and 36% say they’ll vote for Republicans.

McGreevey has a solid base inside his party, with 85% of self-described Democrats making McGreevey their choice. Among self-described Republicans 17% say they will vote for McGreevey and 6% are undecided. Republican support for GOP state legislative candidates is actually higher than Republican support for the Republican’s ticket-leader: 81% of self-identified Republicans say they will vote for Republican candidates for the state’s legislature. Dr. Bruce Larson, survey analyst, said “a fractured Republican party cannot win a state-wide race.”

Turnout for the New Jersey 2001 election has been extremely difficult to predict. Many commentators have been wondering whether the terrorist attacks, anthrax scares, and military action in Afghanistan will make off-year voting even more sparse than usual. According to Larson, “turnout for statewide elections like these is typically relatively low. McGreevey still needs to make certain that his supporters get to the polls.” An earlier poll (released October 10) by Fairleigh Dickinson University found that 43% of voters said the terrorist attacks made them more likely to vote. Now, as the events of 9-11 are more distant, only 24% of voters say the terrorist attacks have made them more likely to vote, whereas 74% say the attacks make no difference in their likelihood of voting. The polling results, examined under various levels of turnout, suggest that McGreevey’s lead changes only minimally and the changes are within the poll’s margin of error.

As Larson also pointed out, “In 1993 Christie Whitman headed into the last weekend of the governor’s campaign with a 10-point deficit. She made it all up in those last few days.” Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind is continuing to poll over the weekend in order to detect any late trend and, in addition, will be re-interviewing undecided voters.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727