Response by Stephen Salmore

In a race where the challenger and the incumbent are in a virtual tie with a month still to go, the common wisdom is that the incumbent is in trouble. Voters who have not yet made a choice, have usually at least decided not to vote for the incumbent, and most will end up voting for the challenger by election day.  But in this district, Sarlo is not the typical incumbent, nor is Kelly the typical challenger and incumbency may not be a factor this year.

Two years ago, Sarlo was elected to the Assembly by 1500 votes while Jim McGreevey was winning by more than 10,000 votes.  He moved up to the Senate in May of this year when then State Senator Gary Funari was appointed to the bench.  Sarlo is the incumbent Senator by virtue of appointment, not election.

Kelly, although losing his bid for State Senate to Funari in 2001, had represented the 36^th District in the Assembly for twenty years, winning ten elections between 1981 and 2001.  Although now the challenger, he has higher name recognition and more favorable opinions than “incumbent” Sarlo.  Sarlo’s slight lead over Kelly, within the poll’s margin of error, reflects not incumbency, but the Democratic registration edge in the District. 

The factor that may well decide this election is Governor Jim McGreevey.  In 2001 he carried the District handily, and most of his voters stayed in the Democratic column in voting for the Legislature.  With no state wide race at the top of the ballot this year, turnout will be lower.  And given McGreevey’s poor numbers, many of the voters who stay home will be disappointed McGreevey supporters.   These “no shows” will not be there to vote for the Democratic Legislative candidates, and this may give the Kelly the edge on election day.

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.