Background Memo  

The most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was commissioned by the Silberman College of Business and conducted by telephone from January 2 through January 6 using a randomly selected sample of 620 adults statewide (aged 18 and over) who report that they participate in financial decisions in their household. The sampling error for 620 adults is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.  Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. Interviews were conducted by professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system.  Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land line (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Results are also mathematically weighted to match known demographics.

The Index of Consumer Performance is a composite number of reported behavior over the past year. By contrast, the Index of Consumer Intentions is a composite number of consumer expectations about the coming year. Each number is based on a series of questions about the economy, personal finance, and consumer behavior. Responses about the direction of the economy and personal finances account for 40% of the composite. Consumer intentions regarding a variety of major expenditures over the past and coming year make up 50% of the index. And 10% of the composite number is a reflection of consumers’ comfort with personal debt. The scale can theoretically vary from 0 to 100.

Questions

Would you say you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead—do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially or worse off?

Would you say that at the present time business conditions in New Jersey are better or worse than they were a year ago?

And how about a year from now—do you expect during the next 12 months business conditions in New Jersey will be better or worse than they are at present?

In the past year, did you…?

• Buy or lease a car
• Purchase stocks or other types of investments outside your pension plan
• Buy a major home appliance
• Make a major home improvement or repair over $1000
• Purchase an airline ticket for a pleasure trip
• Go away on vacation for a week or more
• Buy a computer
• Refinance your house or take a home equity loan
• Buy or build a house
• Visit an Atlantic City casino
• Increase the unpaid balance on your credit card

In the next 12 months, do you expect to…?

• Buy or lease a car
• Purchase stocks or other types of investments outside your pension plan
• Buy a major home appliance
• Make a major home improvement or repair over $1000
• Purchase an airline ticket for a pleasure trip
• Go away on vacation for a week or more
• Buy a computer
• Refinance your house or take a home equity loan
• Buy or build a house
• Visit an Atlantic City casino
• Increase the unpaid balance on your credit card

Now thinking about the outstanding balance on your credit cards-- how difficult is it to make payments on the balances? Would you say it is...

• Very Difficult
• Somewhat Difficult
• Not Very Difficult
• Not At All Difficult

During the next 12 months, do you think that housing prices in your area will go up or go down?

Have you, or anyone of your relatives or close friends lost a job in the past year?

If you were suddenly to get an extra $1000, do you think you would

• Save it
• Spend it
• Use it to pay bills
• Give it to Charity

see also:
Survey Analysis
Tabular Results