Response by Stephen Salmore

The latest numbers for Governor McGreevey are poor. But despite that a number of his close associates have been indicted, his standing with the public has not fallen, and has in fact risen slightly. Republicans should not take his poor numbers to mean that he will not be a formidable candidate for reelection. Right now, the public is still not focusing on reelection. And to ask the public to think about reelection without a clear opponent in mind could lead to false optimism.

Most of the governor’s problems are with Democrats. Only a bare majority of Democrats think he deserves reelection. But if McGreevey is to lose in 2005, it has to be because the Republicans come up with a candidate who voters see as clearly preferable. Republicans cannot just rely on bad news from the governor’s camp. Until we see who will emerge as the Republican opponent, it will be dangerous to discount the power of the incumbent and the success incumbents have had in New Jersey winning re-election. The governor has taken a lot of blows so far but no mortal ones.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-267-4947.