Background Memo and Tables
The most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from April 3 through April 10 using a statewide, randomly selected sample of 802 registered voters in New Jersey aged 18 and over. The sampling error for 802 adults is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.
The wording of the questions included in this release are as follows:
US1. In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?
- Right direction
- Wrong track
- Don’t know/Unsure
US2. How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
- Excellent
- Good
- Only fair
- Poor
- Don’t know/Unsure
US3a. [Ask of half the sample] Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ? If "unsure," or "don’t know" ask "which way do you lean?"
- George Bush, the Republican Candidate
- lean Bush
- John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
- lean Kerry
- Other/Don’t know (vol)
US3b. [Ask of half the sample] Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] or Ralph Nader, a third party candidate? If "unsure," or "don’t know" ask "which way do you lean?"
- George Bush, the Republican Candidate
- lean Bush
- John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
- lean Kerry
- Ralph Nader
- lean Nader
- Other/Unsure (vol)
Generic Comparison: As you know, there will be an election for President next year. If the election were held today, and George Bush were the Republican candidate, would you vote for him or would you vote for his Democratic opponent, or someone else?
- Bush
- Democratic opponent
- Someone else [don’t read]
- Unsure [don’t read]
US4 Now turning to a different matter… How closely have you been following news about the war in Iraq?
- Very closely
- Somewhat closely
- Not too closely
- Not at all closely
- Don’t know (vol)
US5 How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?
- Very well
- Fairly well
- Not to well
- Not at all well
- Unsure
US6 Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?
- Right thing
- Mistake
- Don’t know (vol.)
see
also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Tabular Results