Beyond Ethics?

see also:
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Salmore's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis

October 1 , 2002

It was a "campaign devoid of all issues," said Senator Torricelli as he withdrew from his race for re-election. "I can't be heard." The most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University survey shows that New Jersey voters are indeed concerned about a host of issues aside from Torricelli's ethics.

One issue that affects many New Jerseyans is how to clean up the state's highly polluted Superfund sites. While Senator Torricelli argued that polluters should be forced to foot the bill for the cleanup, his GOP challenger, Doug Forrester, advocates using government money in order to get the sites cleaned up faster. By a wide margin (67% to 23%), New Jersey voters favor the Torricelli approach. (See Table 1.) In fact, even among self-described Republican voters, a plurality (48% to 39%) supported Torricelli's position on Superfund cleanup over Forrester's.

"Here is a clear example of a salient issue that never emerged as a defining point in the race," said Bruce Larson, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and a survey analyst for the PublicMind. "The dynamic of this race was not public policy."

International terrorism looms particularly large in voters' minds. Two of every three voters say terrorism is a "major crisis for the country," while one in three says it is a major problem. Significant concerns about international terrorism are evident across virtually all subgroups of voters. "But this campaign" noted Larson, "had only one issue. That was the incumbent Senator's ethics, and it drove out every other issue."

Majorities of New Jersey voters also view budget deficits, corporate corruption, health care costs, a weak economy, and sharp declines in the stock market as major problems for the nation. Democrats, moreover, are significantly more likely than Republicans to see many of these issues as major crises for the nation. "But," added Larson, "concern about these domestic issues did little to help Senator Torricelli solidify his base of Democratic voters, much less help him to reach the large bloc of independent voters who often decide statewide races in New Jersey."

GOP challenger Doug Forrester tried to make the state's reputation for corrupt politics an issue in the U.S. Senate contest, arguing that Senator Torricelli's ethical problems worsened the state's image. But a large plurality (44%) of voters say they are unconcerned what people in other states think of New Jersey. And while Forrester supporters are significantly more likely to say that New Jersey has more dishonest politicians than other states, two-thirds of New Jersey's likely voters believe that the Garden State has no more or no fewer dishonest politicians than other states.

Although New Jersey voters have concerns about a range of issues, the Torricelli-Forrester contest was clearly dominated by talk of Torricelli's ethical transgressions. Nine of ten voters heard at least something about the Senator's ethics problems, and two of three voters heard more than a little.

The survey of 601 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from September 18 to 23 and has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

 

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727

Copyright © 2002, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 021001]