Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

July ‘04

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

14

31

64

40

34

Wrong track

51%

77

49

23

49

53

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

 9

20

13

11

13

April ’04        

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

38%

13

35

65

43

33

Wrong track

48%

73

52

21

46

50

Don’t know/Unsure

14%

14

14

14

11

17

January ‘04

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

47%

25

47

75

54

41

Wrong track

38%

56

37

16

33

42

Don’t know/Unsure

15%

19

16

10

14

17

Sept ‘03

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

20

30

61

43

31

Wrong track

52%

72

52

25

45

58

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

  9

18

14

12

12

Last April ‘03

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

55%

35

51

77

60

50

Wrong track

32%

49

34

14

30

34

Don’t know/Unsure

13%

17

15

  9

10

17

Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

July ‘04

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

16%

 2

 9

34

19

13

Good

26%

11

21

43

25

27

Only fair

27%

33

39

18

26

28

Poor

29%

52

24

 4

27

30

Don’t know/Unsure

  2%

  1

 7

 1

 3

 2

April ‘04

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

15%

 1

10

31

19

12

Good

28%

11

27

44

27

28

Only fair

27%

35

36

17

26

29

Poor

29%

50

25

  7

28

30

Don’t know/Unsure

  1%

 1

  2

--

--

  2

January ‘04

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

17%

  4

11

36

23

12

Good

34%

17

44

53

33 

36

Only fair

28%

45

29

  7

24

32

Poor

19%

33

13

  4

19

19

Don’t know/Unsure

  2%

  2

  4

--

  2

  2

Sept ‘03

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

16%

  3

  7

36

22

11

Good

28%

18

35

40

29

28

Only fair

29%

36

41

17

24

33

Poor

26%

43

16

  6

24

27

Don’t know/Unsure

 1%

  1

  1

  2

 2

 1

Last April ‘03

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

28%

  6

23

52

32

24

Good

34%

32

36

37

33

35

Only fair

21%

33

21

  9

20

23

Poor

16%

28

15

  2

14

17

Don’t know/Unsure

  1%

  1

  4

  0

  1

  2

Question:  Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ?  If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”

July  ’04/Base=834

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

41%

 9

30

81

46

36

      lean Bush

 2%

 0

  3

 5

 3

 2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

42%

77

32

 6

38

44

     lean Kerry

 3%

 5

  6

 1

 2

 4

Nader or Other (vol.)

 2%

 2

  6

 2

 3

 2

Don’t know  (vol.)

10%

 8

24

 6

 9

11

April  ’04/Base=405

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40%

10

26

78

47

35

      lean Bush

  7%

  2

20

  6

  5

  8

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

41%

75

31

  9

40

42

     lean Kerry

  7%

  8

13

  3

  3

10

Other/Don’t know  (vol)

  4%

  5

 9

  4

  5

  5

Question: Now if the election were held today, and Ralph Nader was also a candidate, do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE]  or Ralph Nader, a third party candidate?  If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

39

8

28

79

45

35

      lean Bush

2

0

4

4

3

2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

39

72

26

6

35

41

     lean Kerry

3

4

5

0

2

3

Ralph Nader

6

7

7

4

6

6

     lean Nader

0

0

2

0

0

1

Unsure (vol)

11

8

28

7

10

13

Question Now turning to a different matter… How closely have you been following news about the war in Iraq?

US7 How well is the US military effort in Iraq  going?

All

Very well

Fairly well

Not too well

Not well

 At all

Very closely

51%

63

46

47

65

Somewhat closely

40%

32

46

42

26

Not too closely

  8%

 5

 6

10

 8

Not at all closely

  2%

 0

 1

  1

 2

Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

April

 ‘04

Jan

‘03

Sept

 ‘03

Change from April to July

Very well

17%

10

15

26

17%

21%

21

  0

Fairly well

42%

31

 45

53

38%

48%

40

+4

Not to well

25%

34

23

15

27%

19%

25

 -2

Not at all well

13%

20

13

 4

12%

  8%

10

 -1

Unsure

 4%

  4

  4

 3

  6%

  3%

  4

 -2

Question: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

Party

President’s Job Rating

Gender

July ‘04

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Men

Women

Right thing

44%

19

40

74

95

73

29

5

48

41

Mistake

48%

74

46

20

 2

16

62

89

45

50

Don’t know (vol.)

  8%

  7

11

 6

 3

10

  9

 6

 6

  9

April ‘04

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Men

Women

Right thing

47%

22

42

75

95

74

33

  9

54

42

Mistake

43%

69

48

16

  3

11

54

86

39

47

Don’t know (vol.)

10%

  9

10

  9

  2

15

14

  6

  7

12

Jan. ‘04

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Men

Women

Right thing

55%

35

57

82

94

77

34

15

58

52

Mistake

37%

57

33

12

  3

11

56

83

35

38

Don’t know (vol.)

  8%

  8

10

  6

  3

11

10

  2

  7

  9

Sept ‘03

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Men

Women

Right thing

54%

34

52

80

97

84

36

15

62

47

Mistake

40%

59

40

15

2

10

51

82

33

45

Don’t know (vol.)

 6%

  7

 8

 5

2

 6

12

 3

  4

  8

Last April ‘03

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Men

Women

Right thing

67%

49

66

86

97

84

45

11

73

62

Mistake

23%

40

26

 6

 2

 7

37

79

20

27

Don’t Know (vol.)

10%

10

 8

 8

 2

 9

19

10

 8

12

Question: Which are you following more closely—the war in Iraq or the status of the economy?

All

18-34

35-54

55-64

65+

Iraq

40

41

41

38

42

Economy

24

36

25

25

14

Neither (vol.)

 3

 5

 2

 1

 4

Both (vol.)

33

19

31

36

40

In deciding who to vote for for President, which is more important to you, the candidate’s position on…[ROTATE]  or …?

All

Men

Women

foreign policy and the war in Iraq

35

39

32

the economy

35

31

39

Neither (vol.)

  2

3

2

Both (vol.)

24

25

23

Don’t know (vol.)

  3

2

3