Background Memo and Tables

see also:
Survey Analysis
Tabular Results
Republican Response
Democratic Response

The most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from July 20 through July 26 using a statewide, randomly selected sample of 834 registered voters in New Jersey aged 18 and over. The sampling error for 834 adults is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.


The wording of the questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Question: Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE]

Question: [for Bush voters] Would you say you are voting more for George Bush or against John Kerry?

Question: [for Kerry voters] Would you say you are voting more for John Kerry or against George Bush?

Question: Now if the election were held today, and Ralph Nader was also a candidate, do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] or Ralph Nader, a third party candidate?

Question Now turning to a different matter… How closely have you been following news about the war in Iraq?

Question: How well is the US military effort in Iraq going?

Question: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

Question: Which are you following more closely—the war in Iraq or the status of the economy?

In deciding who to vote for for President, which is more important to you, the candidate's position on…[ROTATE] or …?