FDU PublicMind - July 28, 2004 Release

Response by Stephen Salmore

After almost four years in office, most of the public have made up their minds about George Bush, and the public is very evenly divided. However, for most voters, Kerry is an unknown factor. Even at this point, most Kerry voters are not for Kerry but against Bush.

The latest PublicMind results are certainly encouraging to Republicans, especially considering that many experts and observers have virtually conceded New Jersey to Kerry. If these numbers appeared at this stage of the election twenty years ago, many Republicans would have assumed they were home free, for at that time many independents and undecideds tended to vote Republican. However, in recent years, independents and undecideds have broken more heavily for Democrats than for Republicans.

For the Republicans to win New Jersey, and win over the bulk of the undecideds and independents, they must demonstrate that John Kerry is not a suitable replacement for George Bush. In order to do that, they must get a message directly to voters. The most effective way to get the message out is by running ads on television. The problem is that TV ads, to be seen by New Jerseyans, in particular the two-thirds who live in the northern part of the state and watch NY television, are a very expensive proposition. Voters in South Jersey who get Philadelphia television will be exposed to Bush ads from Pennsylvania. But Republicans are quite likely to decide not to contest New York because of its traditional Democratic leanings and the expensive media market. That means that New Jerseyans who depend on New York for their television are not likely to be getting the Republican message through television. So while New Jersey appears to be tantalizingly close at this stage, it still seems likely that Republicans will not make New Jersey a priority. Unless Bush wins by a large margin elsewhere, New Jersey will likely remain in the Democratic column for the fourth straight time.

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-267-4947.