FDU PublicMind - January 23, 2004 Release

2004 Report on Consumer Intentions

A majority (55%) of New Jersey residents believe they will be better off financially a year from now while only 15% believe they will be worse off, according the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. These numbers are an improvement from last year when 48% were expecting improvement and 22% were expecting their finances to deteriorate.

Similarly, a majority (56%) of residents are optimistic that business conditions will improve in the coming year, while only 21% believe that the conditions will become worse. Last year only 43% thought business conditions would be improving and one in every three thought things would get worse. “People think the tough times are behind us,”said James Almeida, professor of entrepreneurial studies in the Silberman College of Business, the sponsor of the study. “Their sentiment is in sharp contrast to their perceptions last year when they were not optimistic about business conditions and only cautiously optimistic about their personal finances,”added Almeida.

Almost half of New Jersey residents (47%) believe that business conditions have either improved or, at least, have not deteriorated over the past year, a sharp uptick from their perceptions last year when only 25% of residents thought conditions had improved or remained the same. In fact, a year ago two-thirds of Garden Staters said business conditions had gotten worse, now only 43% say conditions are worse than they were a year ago.

The consumer study, sponsored by the Silberman College of Business, produces two indicators of economic activity. This year’s composite number of Consumer Intentions—what consumers think they will do—is 47, an improvement from 42 last year. This year’s composite number of past performance—what consumers actually did—is 41, dramatically up from the previous year’s 33. “The difference in the two numbers reflects New Jersey consumers’sentiment that, while last year was not a banner year, it was a significant improvement from the previous year,”said Almeida. “The cautious optimism expressed by consumers last January was consistent with their experience during the past 12 months. Their outlook for 2004 reflects an even stronger confidence in their financial position and business conditions in the state.”

Among the other findings in the study:

The refinancing boom may be over. One in four say they refinanced their home last year but only 9% expect to do so in the coming year.

Families may be having more quality time: 72% expect they’ll go away for a week or more on vacation though only 58% report that they did that last year.

Parking at the airport may be tight. A majority say they expect to buy airline tickets for a pleasure trip.

See you at Home Depot: 40% say they’ll be making a major home improvement or repair over $1000.

Good news for the State Treasurer: 37% expect to pay a visit to an Atlantic City casino as compared to only 28% who last year said they would do that.

Do you have a broker? One in three say they’ll purchase stocks outside their pension plan.

What to do with a bonus? A majority of people with children would use an extra 1000 to pay off bills…while people with no children would sock it in the bank or spend it.

What’s in your wallet? Only 11% say they will increase the unpaid balance on their credit card, but 26% actually did increase that balance over the past year.

Talk about a bull market! Four of five expect housing prices in their neighborhood to go up.

News flash…not. Politicians get little credit for the returning economy. Only a quarter think that Governor McGreevey’s policies have helped at all. In fact, only about a third of Democrats think the Democratic governor’s policies have helped. The President fares a little better: a majority of Republicans (55%) say his policies have helped the economy but only a third of all adults think that the President’s policies have been beneficial.

But not everything comes up rosy. Last year 48% of residents thought their finances would improve, but this year only 36% reported their financial position did improve. Similarly, last year 22% expected their financial condition to deteriorate but about 30% report that it did get worse. Residents with household incomes of less than $50,000 and those living in the northeast parts of the state and/or urban areas were more likely to have had a difficult 2003. Still, 39% reported last year that they were worse off, while only 30% this year say they are worse off than they were.

The survey of 800 randomly selected adults throughout New Jersey who participate in their household’s financial decisions was conducted from January 9 through January 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% The project was underwritten in part by the Silberman College of Business.

Poll Analysis

Contact:

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

James Almeida, survey analyst:
732-925-2271

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.