FDU PublicMind - October 17, 2002 Release

Lautenberg Shows Strengths of Incumbency

October 17, 2002

Despite entering the U.S. Senate contest just two weeks ago, Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads GOP candidate Doug Forrester among likely voters by a margin of 44% to 38% according the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind. (See Table 1.) Another 4% of likely voters say they are leaning towards Lautenberg, and 3% say they are leaning towards Forrester. Including leaners, Lautenberg's margin becomes 48-41. Meanwhile, 10% remain undecided and 1% say they will vote for a candidate other than Lautenberg or Forrester.

The vote breaks down predictably along party lines. Among self-described Democratic voters, 73% say they will support Lautenberg, and 75% of Republican voters support Forrester. "Defections among Democrat voters are fewer now that Lautenberg has replaced Torricelli in the race," noted Fairleigh Dickinson University political science professor Bruce Larson. "That's been a significant boost for the Democratic party and a blow to the Forrester campaign"

Independents favor Lautenberg over Forrester by a margin of 42% to 26%, with 20% still undecided and 4% saying they will vote for a candidate other than Forrester or Lautenberg. Independents had been leaning slightly towards Forrester when Torricelli was the Democratic candidate in the contest. (See PublicMind release of 9/25/02.)

Lautenberg's margin holds up across all geographical areas of the state but one. Forrester's strength is clearly in northwest New Jersey, where he has a 47-39 lead. But Lautenberg's margin in the more populous northeast and central parts of the state is 9 to 11 percentage points.

A majority of likely voters have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Lautenberg, while 29% view him unfavorably. (See Table 2.) Forrester's favorable ratings also outpace his unfavorable ratings, 42% to 28%. But one in four likely voters still have no opinion of him, and 7% have never heard of him. By contrast, only 16% of voters have no opinion of Lautenberg, while only 3% have never heard of him. "The GOP's problem appears to be twofold" said Larson. "Lautenberg is better known by voters than is Forrester, and Lautenberg is viewed more favorably."

Compounding Forrester's problems are that significant pluralities of New Jersey voters see Lautenberg as the more "honest and trustworthy" candidate, more "able to get the job done for New Jersey," and more likely to "understand the concerns of the average person." (See Table 3.) In addition, almost half say Lautenberg did a good or excellent job as U.S. Senator, whereas 37% say he did only a fair or poor job. (See Table 4.)

Professor Larson noted that "Lautenberg—having served in the Senate for 18 years and retiring only two short years ago—is in effect the incumbent in this contest. For a challenger to defeat an incumbent, two conditions usually need to be met: first, a sufficient number of voters must view the incumbent unfavorably; second, enough voters need to see the challenger as a preferable alternative. Right now, neither of these conditions appears to be holding in New Jersey."

The survey of 590 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from October 10 to 15 and has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727