Response by Stephen Salmore

New Jersey will be a difficult state for George Bush to win. A majority now give him a positive job rating and believe the country is headed in the right direction. However, this does not translate to winning numbers against any individual Democrat. Bush is in a position by next year—if events continue to go in his favor—to possibly pick up NJ, but it would still require a major campaign effort. And such an effort is unlikely. New Jersey is an expensive state to campaign in. To compete in this state, campaigns have to buy TV time in Philadelphia and New York—two of the most expensive markets in the nation. Absent a major push on New York City stations, it will be difficult for George Bush to carry New Jersey.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.