Late in the Race, It's Still a Race

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Tabular Results
Survey Details

November 1, 2002

Despite an enormous campaign effort to familiarize voters with personalities and issues in the race for New Jersey's Senate seat, Republican Doug Forrester trails his better-known rival Frank Lautenberg by 43 to 36 percent according to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. When voters who lean are included in the totals, Lautenberg's lead becomes 47 to 37.

Still, compared to the PublicMind's October 17 poll, Lautenberg's numbers have not changed significantly. Moreover, 14% of likely voters remain undecided, 3% say they will vote for some candidate other than the major party nominees, and the percentage of voters who view Lautenberg "somewhat" or "very favorably" has declined from 52% to 44%. "Just days before the election, Lautenberg—who is better known than Forrester—is still not at the magic 50 percent mark," commented Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the PublicMind. "While Lautenberg has a clear lead over Forrester, it would be a mistake to consider him a shoo-in. This race is not over yet."

Forrester still struggles with voter recognition: one in ten voters have not heard of the Republican nominee, one in four say they have heard of him but have no opinion. "After months of campaigning, many voters still don't seem to know much about Doug Forrester," noted Larson. "At the same time, 20% of likely voters also say they have no opinion of Lautenberg—a relatively high number given that he's already served 18 years in the U.S. Senate."

Doug Forrester continues to do well in the Northwestern part of the state. "His lead in the northwest could well benefit GOP candidate Scott Garrett in the race to fill Marge Roukema's Congressional seat" said Larson. "The top of the ticket sometimes makes a difference for the party's other candidates."

Lautenberg's lead continues to be significant among women voters and among those who describe themselves as pro-choice on the issue of abortion. When leaners are included, women voters put Lautenberg at the magic 50% mark (50% to 33%). Pro-choice voters, including leaners, break for Lautenberg, 54% to 33%. Female pro-choice voters favor Lautenberg by 57 to 30%. Independents, too, continue to favor the Democrat, 43% to 30%.

"Time is quickly running out," said Larson. "The campaigns are in high gear, but they don't appear to be having much impact on voters."

The survey of 683 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from October 28 to 31 and has a margin of error of ± 3.75 percentage points. PublicMind will continue to interview voters over the last weekend of the campaign.

 

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727

Copyright © 2002, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 021101]